La Bola Negra tops Variety’s early 2027 international feature forecast
Variety puts Spain’s La Bola Negra first in its early Oscar forecast, but Academy vetting and voting are still ahead.
By Georgia Hale · Staff Writer
2 min read
2027 Oscar international feature predictions have put Spain’s La Bola Negra in the early lead, according to Variety’s Oct. 1 rankings. The list is an awards-media forecast, not an Academy decision, and none of the films has been nominated.
Variety ranked Romania’s Fjord second, followed by France’s Minotaur, South Korea’s Possible Love and Denmark’s Woman Unknown. The five are the outlet’s predicted nominees at this stage of the race.
Which films lead the 2027 Oscar international feature race?
- La Bola Negra, Spain, directed by Javier Calvo and Javier Ambrossi
- Fjord, Romania, directed by Cristian Mungiu
- Minotaur, France, directed by Andrey Zvyagintsev
- Possible Love, South Korea, directed by Lee Chang-dong
- Woman Unknown, Denmark, directed by May el-Toukhy
There is festival hardware all over that list. Variety reported that La Bola Negra won the Toronto International Film Festival’s People’s Choice Award, while Fjord took Cannes’ Palme d’Or. Minotaur, Variety said, was Cannes’ runner-up and will compete for France.
South Korea’s Possible Love arrives after Lee Chang-dong won the directing prize at Venice, according to Variety. Denmark’s Woman Unknown won Venice’s Golden Lion, though Variety flagged a practical hitch: the film was still seeking U.S. distribution.
Each film has been selected by its country for the category, but a national submission is not the same as an Oscar nomination. The Academy reviews entries to ensure they meet requirements involving language, creative input and theatrical release, TheWrap reported.
That review is why the contest remains unsettled. TheWrap said the category did not yet have a clear front-runner and named a wider group of likely shortlist contenders, including Poland’s Fatherland, Japan’s All of a Sudden, Belgium’s Coward and Austria’s Rose, alongside Fjord, La Bola Negra, Possible Love and Minotaur.
Woman Unknown was not included in that particular wider shortlist discussion, even as Variety placed it fifth. That gap underlines how early the forecasts are, rather than signaling agreement across awards coverage.
Variety said preliminary voting for the 15-film international-feature shortlist is scheduled for Dec. 7 through 11, with the shortlist due Dec. 15. Oscar nominations are set to be announced Jan. 21, 2027, ahead of the March 14 ceremony.
This story draws on original reporting from Variety.