Spider-Man: Brand New Day box office eyed for $465M worldwide launch
Deadline reports the Tom Holland sequel is tracking for a $465M global opening, potentially Sony’s second-biggest debut ever.
By Bianca Rossi · Entertainment Editor
3 min read
Spider-Man: Brand New Day box office forecasts are swinging high, with Deadline reporting that the Sony and Marvel Studios sequel is tracking for an estimated $465 million worldwide opening.
If that projection holds, the Tom Holland and Zendaya film would give Sony its second-biggest reported global debut, behind only Spider-Man: No Way Home, which opened to $600.5 million worldwide. Deadline reported that the new film would also come in ahead of 2003’s Spider-Man 3, which launched with $381.6 million.
The projected total would also make Brand New Day one of the biggest post-Covid global openings. Deadline said it would rank third in that period, trailing No Way Home and 2025’s Zootopia 2, which opened with $560.3 million worldwide.
How big could Spider-Man: Brand New Day open?
Deadline reported that the current worldwide estimate is built from a domestic opening forecast around $195 million and an international forecast near $270 million. NRG is seeing the North American debut at $195 million, according to Deadline, while other box office watchers cited in the report believe the domestic number could be closer to $250 million.
Even at the lower domestic figure, Brand New Day would mark the biggest opening of 2026 so far, topping Disney and Pixar’s Toy Story 5, which Deadline said opened to $159.6 million.
The film’s presales are another reason the industry is watching closely. Deadline reported that North American advance ticket sales stand at $80 million, slightly above the $78 million level logged by No Way Home before its release.
Deadline also reported that the production cost is $225 million net, and said rival studios and industry figures see room for the film to outperform the current estimates.
Why are forecasts cautious?
Deadline pointed to several reasons for caution, despite the size of the numbers. The report said No Way Home arrived in a different theatrical moment, when many moviegoers were returning to cinemas as Covid restrictions eased, even as the Omicron variant later surged.
The new sequel also is described by Deadline as a different kind of Spider-Man entry. Rather than repeating the multiverse hook of No Way Home, the film centers on what Deadline called a higher-stakes love story and an emotional villain, with Shang-Chi filmmaker Destin Daniel Cretton directing after Jon Watts’ run on Holland’s previous Spider-Man films.
Deadline said the film had an 89% certified fresh critics score on Rotten Tomatoes at the time of its report, just below No Way Home at 93%.
The report also noted the difficulty of forecasting very large openings. For movies projected above $100 million, Deadline said box office sources can overshoot, even when the film still starts strongly.
Where is Spider-Man: Brand New Day opening first?
Deadline reported that major Wednesday openings include Argentina, Brazil, China, France, Germany, Mexico, Spain, Korea, Italy and the UK, with the UK starting after 7:30 p.m. following the London premiere.
The rollout continues Thursday in Australia, India and Saudi Arabia, according to Deadline, with Japan following on Friday.
Among recent global openings, Deadline said the projected $465 million launch would put Brand New Day ahead of Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness at $452 million, Deadpool & Wolverine at $444.7 million, Avatar: The Way of Water at $441.7 million and Ne Zha 2 at $431.2 million.
This story draws on original reporting from Deadline.