USDA beef data cut rattles ranchers already squeezed by high costs
A more than 90% revision to weekly beef-export sales has sharpened worries over USDA staffing cuts, delayed reports and market-moving data errors.
By Sal Moretti · Money Reporter
4 min read
A weekly U.S. beef-export sales figure that first looked like a banner number was cut by more than 90% one week later, putting fresh heat on the Agriculture Department’s data operation.
The USDA on July 2 reported 126,100 metric tons in U.S. beef-export sales for 2026 delivery for the week ended June 25, according to its archived export-sales report. The agency said at the time the total was up noticeably from the prior week and marked a marketing-year high.
By July 9, the USDA had revised the number sharply lower, citing an error. A USDA spokesperson told MarketWatch the faulty figure came from a single exporter.
The agency said it noticed the unusually high total, contacted the exporter to check it, then worked with that exporter to find the mistake and publish corrected volumes in the next report.
In a statement to MarketWatch, the USDA said it remained committed to accurate, transparent and timely agricultural trade data. Asked whether staffing cuts played a role, the department described the incident as an isolated anomaly and said it was still focused on keeping reports timely, reliable and accurate.
Ranchers see a bigger problem
Some cattle-industry figures told MarketWatch the revision fits a wider pattern of anxiety about federal agriculture data.
Mackenzie Johnston, a fifth-generation Nebraska cattle rancher and content director at Standard Grain, the commodity brokerage owned by AgMarket.Net, called the beef-export episode absurd in comments to MarketWatch. She said USDA reports can move markets, so bad information can create price swings that hurt producers.
Kevin Kester, a California rancher, former National Cattlemen’s Beef Association president and former adviser on the Agricultural Policy Advisory Committee for Trade under the Obama and first Trump administrations, told MarketWatch the USDA’s turnover and staff reductions have been hurting reporting and data collection.
Kester said the cattle and beef business is already dealing with drought, higher input expenses, rising regulatory costs and labor shortages. He warned that less reliable government data adds another obstacle to rebuilding the U.S. beef herd and could keep pressure on retail beef prices.
Retail prices are already elevated. The average U.S. ground-beef price reached $6.825 a pound in July, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data cited through the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
Staff cuts and delayed reports
The USDA’s civilian workforce has fallen 15% since 2025, according to data from the Office of Personnel Management, the independent federal agency that oversees the civil service. MarketWatch reported that thousands of USDA jobs were lost between January 2025 and January 2026, partly tied to the Trump administration’s Department of Government Efficiency initiative.
A December report from the Cato Institute, a limited-government think tank, said DOGE reduced the federal workforce but did not cut overall government spending as promised.
USDA reporting had also been disrupted by last year’s 43-day federal shutdown, which ran from Oct. 1 to Nov. 12 and led to several key report postponements, according to the department.
Another concern for analysts was the USDA’s quarterly Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade report. MarketWatch reported that the document carried a May 29 date but was not released until June 1, according to people who follow the industry. The USDA did not answer MarketWatch’s questions about that timing.
Politico reported in early June that a USDA spokesperson said the report had been held up by an internal clearance process and was not finished by the usual deadline. Politico also reported that the release lacked the written analysis normally included.
Mike Castle, senior commodities economist at StoneX, told MarketWatch he has seen a clear decline in the quality and availability of USDA data. He said the likely causes include workforce turnover and funding cuts.
Castle said a fully functioning USDA helps farmers and the broader agriculture sector, while weaker data means less transparency and can leave farmers and ranchers at a disadvantage.
The stakes are not small. The U.S. exported $9.3 billion in beef and beef products in 2025, according to MarketWatch, and is the world’s No. 2 beef producer behind Brazil, with 19% of global production, according to USDA Foreign Agricultural Service data.
This story draws on original reporting from MarketWatch.