Dodgers top ESPN’s MLB second-half World Series board
ESPN’s projections put Los Angeles at 27.5% to win it all, with Milwaukee, Tampa Bay and Atlanta forming the top challenger group.
By Deshawn Carter · Sports Writer
3 min read
The Dodgers hit the All-Star break with baseball’s best record, the sport’s biggest division lead and, according to ESPN’s second-half MLB preview, the clearest path to October glory.
ESPN ranked all 30 clubs by playoff potential and used projections from Bradford Doolittle built on 10,000 Monte Carlo-style simulations of the remaining schedule. Those simulations use Doolittle’s power ratings, which ESPN said are based on results so far and forecasted roster strength.
Los Angeles sits at 61-36 and is projected by ESPN to finish 102-60. The model gives the Dodgers a 99.7% chance to win their division, a 100.0% chance to reach the postseason and a 27.5% chance to win the championship.
That favorite status comes despite ESPN noting that Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow have combined for only eight starts, while Edwin Diaz has made seven appearances. ESPN also pointed to Kyle Tucker’s adjusted OPS of 100 while earning $55 million this season, yet the Dodgers still lead MLB in winning percentage and run differential.
The big four
ESPN’s top tier contains four clubs: the Dodgers, Brewers, Rays and Braves. Milwaukee is 59-37 and projected to go 98-64, with an 88.2% division-title chance, 99.6% playoff chance and 16.5% championship chance.
ESPN credited the Brewers’ latest run to a young, athletic roster, a contact-heavy offense and strong run prevention. Brice Turang and Jacob Misiorowski were identified as key pieces, while ESPN said Milwaukee’s farm system could give the club room to chase a deadline addition.
Tampa Bay, at 56-38, owns the best record in the American League, according to ESPN. The Rays are projected at 94-68, with a 58.8% chance to win the AL East, a 98.9% playoff chance and an 11.3% title chance. ESPN highlighted Junior Caminero’s 28 homers, Yandy Diaz’s .322 average, Jonathan Aranda’s 64 RBIs and Bryan Baker’s 25 saves.
Atlanta rounds out the top tier at 55-40, projected for 92-70. ESPN gives the Braves a 64.2% chance to take the NL East, a 92.8% playoff chance and a 6.7% championship chance. The preview noted injuries to Ronald Acuña Jr. and Spencer Strider, plus pressure from Philadelphia and Miami in the division race.
Yankees lead the next pack
The Yankees open ESPN’s second tier at 54-42, projected for 92-70. Their playoff odds sit at 97.7%, with an 11.8% title chance, second only to the Dodgers, Brewers and Rays in ESPN’s championship forecast.
ESPN said New York’s ceiling depends heavily on health. Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Max Fried and Carlos Rodón are on the injured list, a group ESPN noted has combined for 19 All-Star selections. Fried is nearing a rehab assignment, while ESPN reported Judge, Stanton and Rodón are not expected back before August.
The Cubs are 54-42 and projected by ESPN to finish 90-72, with 82.7% playoff odds.
The Phillies are 54-43 and projected at 89-73, with a 26.7% chance to catch Atlanta in the NL East.
The Mariners are 48-49 and projected at 83-79, yet ESPN’s model still gives them a 37.5% division chance and 55.4% playoff chance.
ESPN’s preview also flagged the season’s stranger turns: the White Sox tied atop the AL Central, the Marlins holding a wild-card spot, the Nationals and Pirates leading MLB in runs scored, and the Mets sitting last despite a payroll above $375 million.
With the deadline looming, ESPN’s board has one clear king in Los Angeles, a tight group of serious challengers and plenty of weird baseball left to sort out.
This story draws on original reporting from ESPN.com.