ESPN experts eye Brewers title run and Caminero MVP charge

The Milwaukee Brewers are the World Series play at 11-1 for ESPN analyst Todd Zola, who pointed to their starting pitching, bullpen, farm system and willingness to deal when competitive as reasons to look past the favored Los Angeles Dodgers.

ESPN’s second-half MLB betting guide, featuring picks from Zola, Derek Carty, Eric Karabell and Tristan H. Cockcroft, was built around futures and awards markets after the All-Star break. ESPN said all odds came from DraftKings Sportsbook and were current at publication.

Zola’s Brewers call was one of the splashiest picks on the board. He argued that the Dodgers’ pursuit of a third straight title is no sure thing, citing questions around pitchers Tyler Glasnow and Blake Snell, while saying Milwaukee has the arms for a playoff run.

Yankees, Rangers and Red Sox among AL plays

Carty’s model, THE BAT X, put the New York Yankees’ chance of reaching the ALCS at 47.3%, above the 40.8% chance implied by their +145 odds. He said that projection assumes Aaron Judge returns and plays about 35 games, and that New York has a better division outlook than the Tampa Bay Rays.

Carty also backed the Texas Rangers to win the AL West at +255. According to him, THE BAT X gives Texas a 36.2% chance to take the division, compared with a 28.2% break-even threshold at that price. He noted health concerns, but said the market appears to be weighing them too heavily.

Karabell looked at the Boston Red Sox to make the playoffs at +425, saying the American League race may not require a dominant record to sneak in. He cited Boston’s recent improvement, including a sweep of the Yankees, and the expected returns of Garrett Crochet and Roman Anthony.

Cockcroft picked the Detroit Tigers to reach at least 80 wins at +200. He said Detroit had MLB’s fourth-best winning percentage since June 1 and a league-best 3.04 ERA over that stretch, after sitting 22-38 and 11.5 games out earlier in the season.

National League long shots get attention

Karabell swung big on the Miami Marlins to win both the National League and their division at 200-1. He said Miami is closer in the standings than some might expect, has talent on hand and has reason to buy at the trade deadline. He also called the Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies flawed.

Zola picked the Pittsburgh Pirates to make the playoffs at +250. He noted that Pittsburgh entered the break fifth in the wild-card standings, one game behind the St. Louis Cardinals and two behind the Marlins, with a better run differential than both.

Zola added that Konnor Griffin’s absence hurts, but said Oneil Cruz and Spencer Horwitz are expected back soon after the break, and that Jared Jones may be allowed a larger workload.

Caminero leads awards board picks

Cockcroft backed Junior Caminero for AL MVP at +600 instead of favorite Yordan Alvarez at -160. He cited Alvarez’s recent history of missed games, his heavy designated-hitter usage and the possibility that his team might miss the postseason.

Cockcroft said Caminero is on a hot run for a club that could win a tight division, and noted there is only a 0.3 WAR gap between Caminero and Alvarez.

For AL Cy Young, Cockcroft took Joe Ryan at 30-1, while acknowledging trade rumors could complicate the wager if Ryan lands in the National League. He pointed to Ryan ranking sixth in K-BB percentage, FIP and xERA.

Zola chose Jesus Luzardo at 19-1 to lead the NL in strikeouts, saying the case depends partly on Milwaukee managing Jacob Misiorowski’s workload. Karabell picked Zack Wheeler for NL Cy Young at 25-1, citing Wheeler’s season at age 36, his recovery from thoracic outlet syndrome, past runner-up finishes and planned retirement after the 2027 season.

This story draws on original reporting from ESPN.com.