Harper and Soto top SportsLine’s Mets-Phillies home run picks
SportsLine analyst Adam Thompson picked Bryce Harper and Juan Soto as home run prop targets for Thursday’s Mets-Phillies game.
By Georgia Hale · Staff Writer
3 min read
Bryce Harper and Juan Soto are the two bats SportsLine analyst Adam Thompson is backing to leave the yard when the Philadelphia Phillies face the New York Mets on Thursday, July 16, according to CBS Sports.
CBS Sports writer Chinmay Vaidya reported that the Mets and Phillies are the only MLB teams scheduled to play Thursday, leaving bettors with one game to scan for player props. Thompson’s home run selections are Harper at +300 and Soto at +235, with both prices listed at FanDuel in the report.
Harper gets the nod against Christian Scott
Thompson’s case for Harper starts with a familiar matchup. Mets pitcher Christian Scott faced Philadelphia on June 27 and held the Phillies to two runs across 4 1/3 innings in a 6-2 New York win, according to CBS Sports. The one homer Scott allowed that day came from Harper.
CBS Sports noted that Harper, 33, has hit 20 home runs through 97 games this season. The report said that pace puts him in range of roughly 35 homers, a level associated with his earlier prime years.
The home-road split adds another layer. Harper has 10 homers at Citizens Bank Park and 10 away from home, according to the report, but his OPS at home is .924, more than 100 points higher than his road mark.
Thompson also pointed to the Mets’ bullpen as part of the angle. CBS Sports reported that New York relievers had allowed a league-high 13 home runs in July entering Thursday’s game.
Soto’s history with Nola stands out
On the Mets side, Thompson is backing Soto against Phillies right-hander Aaron Nola. CBS Sports reported that Nola is 3-6 with a 5.75 ERA over 19 starts this season.
The recent numbers have been rougher. Per the report, Nola has a 6.11 ERA across his last seven starts and a 6.81 ERA in eight home starts. He has allowed one homer over his last two outings, but CBS Sports said he gave up two home runs in each of the four starts before that.
One of those games came against the Mets on June 18, when Soto hit both home runs allowed by Nola, according to CBS Sports.
Soto’s longer track record against Nola is also central to Thompson’s pick. CBS Sports reported that Soto has five career homers off Nola and a 1.142 lifetime OPS in the matchup.
The Phillies’ relief corps is another factor. CBS Sports said Philadelphia’s bullpen has an 8.05 ERA in July and has surrendered eight home runs this month.
Vaidya reported that Thompson was an early SportsLine expert from 2016 to 2019 before returning in 2026 after working as the primary betting analyst for Gambling.com Group. CBS Sports said Thompson has been up more than 70 units in MLB and more than 60 units in the NBA over the past two seasons on sports betting apps.
This story draws on original reporting from CBS Sports.