Jonathan Taylor’s fantasy price comes with a workload warning
ESPN Fantasy analyst Liz Loza says Taylor still has a strong floor, but history and quarterback health add risk for 2026 drafts.
By Georgia Hale · Staff Writer
3 min read
Jonathan Taylor remains the engine of the Indianapolis Colts’ offense, but ESPN Fantasy analyst Liz Loza is waving a bright yellow flag for managers spending premium draft capital on him.
Loza’s case is built around a familiar fantasy headache: a star running back can be both central to his team and vulnerable to the toll that comes with that role. Taylor, 27, has finished as a top-12 fantasy running back in four of his six seasons, according to Loza, and his career average sits at 18.4 carries per game.
That volume has helped make him one of the more dependable names at the position. It also sits at the heart of the risk.
The 300-carry problem
Loza noted that NFL running backs have posted back-to-back seasons with more than 300 carries only 15 times over the past 20 years. Taylor and Derrick Henry are the only backs to have done it across the past two seasons, according to ESPN Fantasy.
The follow-up year has not been kind to most of the previous backs in that group. Of the other 13 players, only six reached 1,000 rushing yards the next season, Loza reported. Only four played every game: LaDainian Tomlinson, Chris Johnson, Michael Turner and Marshawn Lynch.
The workload almost always came down. Loza wrote that those 13 backs averaged 89.9 fewer carries the next season, and every one of them saw a decline of more than 20 attempts.
For Taylor, that history matters because Indianapolis still appears likely to rely on him heavily. Loza described talk of reducing his workload as more summer noise than a meaningful change, pointing to Taylor’s contract status and the state of the Colts roster as reasons he should stay at the center of the offense in 2026.
Daniel Jones looms over the projection
Loza also pointed to quarterback Daniel Jones as a key variable. Jones is coming back from an Achilles injury and is expected to start Week 1, according to ESPN Fantasy.
Taylor’s production dipped after Jones tore his Achilles in Week 14, Loza reported. Even with a small increase in rushing chances, Taylor’s efficiency and fantasy points per game dropped after the injury.
That creates another draft-day complication. If Jones has a setback, Loza wrote, Taylor’s fantasy value could take a hit. The concern is less about whether Taylor will get the ball and more about what the offense around him looks like when he does.
Taylor’s role still gives him a sturdy fantasy base. Loza described him as a feature back with a high floor, which is exactly the kind of profile drafters usually chase early.
Still, Loza said Taylor’s heavy usage and past ankle problems make it reasonable to consider a premium wide receiver in the same draft range. She named Amon-Ra St. Brown and CeeDee Lamb as viable alternatives for managers who want elite upside without taking on the same running back mileage risk.
This story draws on original reporting from ESPN.com.