Kalshi prices Spain as World Cup final favorite over Argentina
CBS Sports says Kalshi is offering prediction contracts on the 2026 World Cup final, Golden Boot race and other tournament outcomes.
By Georgia Hale · Staff Writer
3 min read
Spain is sitting ahead of Argentina on Kalshi’s 2026 World Cup markets as the tournament barrels toward Sunday’s final at MetLife Stadium, according to CBS Sports’ Ryan Wooden.
The final is scheduled for 3 p.m. ET on July 19, with Spain facing Argentina for the trophy. CBS Sports reported that Kalshi, described as the Official Prediction Market Partner of the FIFA World Cup 2026, is offering event contracts tied to tournament matches and outcomes.
Kalshi’s match market listed Spain to win in regulation at $0.43 per share, Argentina at $0.27 and a draw at $0.33, according to CBS Sports. In a separate World Cup winner listing, CBS Sports said Spain was priced at $0.582 and Argentina at $0.420.
How the contracts work
Kalshi markets are built around Yes-or-No event contracts, CBS Sports explained. Traders buy shares tied to a clearly defined outcome, with prices running from $0.01 to $0.99. If the outcome happens, winning shares settle at $1.00 each.
CBS Sports gave one example from the tournament: a trader buying 100 shares on the U.S. men’s national team to beat Australia at $0.66 per share would receive $100 if that result landed. The outlet said prices move as trading activity changes and reflect the market’s view of probability.
For users more used to sportsbook-style numbers, CBS Sports said Kalshi has a sports fan mode that displays prices as American odds. The outlet gave examples including $0.50 as +100, $0.60 as -150 and $0.80 as -400.
Messi and Mbappé still in Golden Boot fight
The Golden Boot race is down to Lionel Messi and Kylian Mbappé, according to CBS Sports. Both players were reported to have eight goals entering the final weekend, with Messi holding the tiebreaker because he had four assists to Mbappé’s three.
CBS Sports said Messi assisted both goals in Argentina’s 2-1 semifinal comeback against England, including Lautaro Martínez’s stoppage-time winner. Mbappé was held without a goal in France’s 2-0 semifinal defeat to Spain, the report said.
Kalshi’s Golden Boot pricing as of July 16 listed Messi at $0.59 and Mbappé at $0.39, according to CBS Sports. A later player note from the outlet listed Messi at $0.62 per share.
Bronze final also on the board
France and England meet in the third-place match at 5 p.m. ET on Saturday, July 18, at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, CBS Sports reported. Kalshi’s prices for that match were France $0.51, England $0.26 and a draw $0.26.
CBS Sports said Kalshi also lists World Cup-related markets covering knockout qualifiers, the Golden Boot, the halftime show performer for the final, whether the champion will be a first-time winner, whether Donald Trump will attend the final, and the host nation that advances furthest.
The outlet reported that Kalshi is available in all 50 states, Washington, D.C., and U.S. territories, though certain markets may not be offered in every jurisdiction. CBS Sports also noted that sports contracts are unavailable in Nevada.
Kalshi is federally regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, according to CBS Sports. The outlet said event contract trading carries the risk of substantial loss and is not suitable for everyone.
This story draws on original reporting from CBS Sports.