MLB lockout threat shadows 2027 season as cap fight hardens
ESPN reports MLB and its players union remain far apart over a salary cap, with a lockout possible after the current labor deal expires Dec. 1.
By Deshawn Carter · Sports Writer
3 min read
Baseball’s labor fight is already hanging over next season: ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported that no one he spoke with at All-Star week expressed optimism that Major League Baseball and the MLB Players Association are on track to avoid a lockout when their current agreement expires Dec. 1.
Passan reported conversations with more than two dozen league and union officials and players in Philadelphia. According to ESPN, the gap is so wide that multiple sources said they would not be surprised if the sides exchange no further core economic proposals before the deadline.
The central fight is the same one that has defined baseball labor politics for decades. ESPN reported that MLB wants a salary cap system, while the union wants to preserve the current uncapped model. Players who spoke anonymously to ESPN said they would be willing to miss games if the league keeps pushing for a cap. Sources told ESPN that owners are also prepared to cancel games if players stay opposed.
Opening Day for 2027 is scheduled for March 25, according to MLB’s schedule release Thursday. ESPN reported that early March could become the true pressure point, when the possibility of losing regular-season games becomes harder to ignore.
The numbers on the table
According to ESPN, MLB’s proposal includes a $245.3 million hard cap, a $171.2 million payroll floor, a five-year limit on free-agent contracts and a $202 million maximum on those deals.
Passan reported that MLB also proposed splitting revenue 50-50 with players under a definition similar to those used by the NFL, NBA and NHL. ESPN said that definition would exclude some related business revenue, such as The Battery development beside the Atlanta Braves’ Truist Park.
Under that model, ESPN noted, if industry revenue were $13 billion, players would receive $6.5 billion to cover salaries, signing bonuses, the pre-arbitration bonus pool and amateur bonuses. Players told ESPN they view that kind of capped system as shifting money between categories rather than creating room for more pay.
Owners point to payroll gaps
MLB has argued that baseball’s lack of a cap or floor has helped create a large spending divide between franchises, according to ESPN. The league has also pointed to recent postseason success by higher-spending and large-market clubs, including the Los Angeles Dodgers’ back-to-back World Series championships.
The union counters that competitive balance does not require limiting player earnings. ESPN reported that the MLBPA has pointed to this year’s standings, with 23 of 30 teams entering the second half either holding a playoff spot or within four games of one.
The union has also cited low-payroll teams in the current playoff picture. ESPN listed the Miami Marlins, Cleveland Guardians, Tampa Bay Rays, Chicago White Sox, Minnesota Twins and Milwaukee Brewers as examples of lower-spending clubs that would make up half the playoff field if the season ended now.
More than a cap fight
Players are also objecting to MLB’s amateur-entry proposal, according to ESPN. Passan reported that the league plan would bar high school players from the draft, prevent college players from being drafted until age 20 and create an international draft that raises the signing age from 16 to 18.
ESPN also reported player skepticism about an escrow system tied to revenue estimates, with players concerned that some withheld salary could remain with teams if revenue misses projections.
The league has promoted a “Level the Playing Field” campaign in support of a cap. ESPN reported that MLBPA interim executive director Bruce Meyer called that campaign “perverse.”
The sides are expected to meet next week, according to ESPN. For now, the biggest issue remains unresolved, and the sport’s next labor deadline is coming fast.
This story draws on original reporting from ESPN.com.