Open odds: Scheffler favored as model fades leader Herbert
Lucas Herbert leads at Royal Birkdale, but FanDuel has Scottie Scheffler favored and SportsLine’s model is wary of the front-runner.
By Deshawn Carter · Sports Writer
3 min read
Lucas Herbert has the lead, Scottie Scheffler has the shortest price, and Jon Rahm has the computer model’s attention as the 2026 Open Championship heads into the weekend at Royal Birkdale.
CBS Sports reported that Herbert, a pre-tournament longshot, reached 8 under after a second-round 62 on Friday. That left him two shots clear entering Saturday, with Cameron Young among three players at 6 under.
The chase pack is loaded. CBS Sports listed Sam Burns at 5 under, while Rahm, Robert MacIntyre, Tommy Fleetwood and defending champion Scheffler were all at 4 under after two rounds.
Bryson DeChambeau’s position changed after his round. According to CBS Sports, he initially finished Round 2 at 7 under, then received a two-stroke penalty tied to a rule violation on the fifth hole, dropping him to 5 under.
FanDuel odds put Scheffler on top
Despite sitting four shots behind Herbert, Scheffler is the betting favorite for the weekend. CBS Sports cited FanDuel Sportsbook odds showing Scheffler at +550, followed by Young at +700.
Herbert is listed at +950, third on the board, while DeChambeau is at +1200. Fleetwood is next at +1300, with Rahm, Ryan Gerard and Burns each at +1500, according to the FanDuel odds cited by CBS Sports.
Other notable prices include Si Woo Kim at +1600, MacIntyre at +2200, Jackson Suber at +2500, and both Rory McIlroy and Alex Fitzpatrick at +3000. The odds were listed by CBS Sports as coming from FanDuel and subject to change.
SportsLine model backs Rahm run, cools on Herbert
SportsLine said its computer model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, simulated the event 10,000 times. CBS Sports reported that the model has correctly projected 17 majors entering the weekend, including the 2026 Masters, last year’s PGA Championship and last year’s Open Championship.
The model’s most pointed weekend call is against the man currently leading. According to CBS Sports, SportsLine projects Herbert to barely finish inside the top 10, making him a fade at his +950 price.
The reasoning cited by CBS Sports is Herbert’s limited record in majors. His best finish in any major is T13, and his top Open Championship result is T15 in 2022.
Rahm gets a much warmer read from the model. CBS Sports reported that SportsLine sees him as a strong value at +1500, even though he starts the weekend four strokes off Herbert’s pace.
Rahm’s major season has been uneven, according to CBS Sports: he missed the cut at the U.S. Open but finished tied for second at the PGA Championship. At Royal Birkdale, he opened with a 67 and followed with a 69.
SportsLine also said its model is positive on multiple longer shots, including one player priced around 30-1, though CBS Sports did not identify that golfer outside its subscription picks.
Selected weekend odds
- Scottie Scheffler: +550
- Cameron Young: +700
- Lucas Herbert: +950
- Bryson DeChambeau: +1200
- Tommy Fleetwood: +1300
- Ryan Gerard: +1500
- Jon Rahm: +1500
- Sam Burns: +1500
- Si Woo Kim: +1600
- Robert MacIntyre: +2200
- Rory McIlroy: +3000
- Ludvig Åberg: +3500
- Shane Lowry: +4000
- Collin Morikawa: +5000
This story draws on original reporting from CBS Sports.