Mario, Michael and horror sleepers power 2026 box office rebound
Variety says domestic ticket sales are up 10% from 2025, with some pricey franchise plays lagging behind low-cost breakouts.
By Georgia Hale · Staff Writer
3 min read
The 2026 box office has found its pulse again, with domestic ticket sales running 10% ahead of last year, according to Rentrak figures cited by Variety.
Hollywood’s summer season is also projected to clear $4 billion for the first time since 2023, when “Barbenheimer” drove crowds back to theaters. The rebound has been fueled by animated sequels, a music biopic and scrappy horror hits, while several expensive bets have struggled to justify their price tags.
The winners
“The Super Mario Galaxy Movie” has reached $1 billion worldwide on a reported $110 million budget, according to Variety. The sequel did not match the first “Super Mario Bros.” film’s full box office haul, and critics were less enthusiastic this time, but Illumination and Nintendo still proved there is plenty of life left in the Mushroom Kingdom.
Amazon MGM Studios scored with “Project Hail Mary,” the Ryan Gosling sci-fi adventure adapted from Andy Weir’s novel. Variety reported that the film has made $683.3 million globally against a $200 million budget after opening in March, when competition was lighter.
“Michael,” Lionsgate’s Michael Jackson biopic, has also crossed $1 billion worldwide on a $155 million budget, Variety reported. The film faced reports of reshoots, behind-the-scenes issues and harsh reviews, with critics faulting it for ending before Jackson was accused of child molestation. Audiences still turned out, making it the highest-grossing musical biopic of all time, above “Bohemian Rhapsody,” according to Variety.
The smallest budget on the winners list may be the loudest story. “Obsession,” directed by 26-year-old YouTube creator Curry Barker, has earned $426 million globally after costing $750,000, Variety reported. The horror film opened to $17 million in North America and then posted four weekends bigger than its debut.
The costly misses
“Supergirl” has taken in $115 million worldwide on a $170 million budget, according to Variety. The outlet cited poor reviews and limited audience familiarity with the character as key problems, while also noting that some online hostility toward the film came from misogynistic trolls.
Amazon MGM’s “Melania” documentary has made $16.7 million worldwide after a reported $40 million production cost and $35 million marketing spend, Variety reported. The film followed Melania Trump’s inaugural preparation and drew support from MAGA audiences, according to the outlet.
Disney’s “Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu” has earned $340 million globally on a $165 million budget, Variety reported. The film, based on the Disney+ series, is on track to finish below “Solo: A Star Wars Story,” which made $392 million and had been the lowest-grossing “Star Wars” film.
Warner Bros.’ “The Bride!” has delivered $23.9 million worldwide against a $90 million budget, according to Variety. Maggie Gyllenhaal’s Bride of Frankenstein-inspired film starred Christian Bale and Jessie Buckley, and Variety reported that its release near Guillermo del Toro’s Oscar-winning “Frankenstein” did not help.
The middle lane
Pixar’s “Hoppers” sits in the mixed column with $372 million worldwide on a $150 million budget, Variety reported. The original animated film opened to $45 million and drew strong reviews, but it did not sustain the longer run that helped “Elemental” climb near $500 million globally.
“The Breadwinner,” a family comedy starring Nate Bargatze, has earned $20 million against a $25 million budget, according to Variety. “28 Years Later: Bone Temple” has reached $58.5 million worldwide on a $63 million budget, despite strong reviews for the franchise entry.
Steven Spielberg’s “Disclosure Day” has made $228 million globally on a $110 million budget, Variety reported. Critics responded well to its twists and action, but younger moviegoers showed more enthusiasm this year for low-cost films from online creators such as Barker and “Backrooms” director Kane Parsons.
More tests are coming, including “The Odyssey,” “Dune: Part Three” and “Avengers: Doomsday.” For now, Variety’s midyear scorecard points to a theatrical recovery with a clear warning: familiar brands still matter, but price tags matter more.
This story draws on original reporting from Variety.