Variety’s Emmy forecast puts The Pitt and Widow’s Bay out front

HBO Max’s “The Pitt,” Apple TV’s “Widow’s Bay” and Netflix’s “Beef” are the big scripted favorites in Variety’s latest Primetime Emmy predictions, with the awards race now mapped across drama, comedy, limited series and more.

Variety’s Awards Circuit, overseen by chief awards editor Clayton Davis, says its Emmy picks reflect the current state of the contest rather than personal preferences. The outlet also notes that its forecasts can shift as buzz, polling and industry events change the race.

The calendar is already tight. According to Variety, Emmy nominations are set for July 8, final voting runs Aug. 17-26, the Creative Arts Emmy Awards and Governors Gala are scheduled for Sept. 5-6, and the Primetime Emmy Awards air Sept. 14 on NBC.

Variety has not yet filled in projected nomination leaders by series or by network, listing both as still to be announced.

The top series races

In drama, Variety currently predicts “The Pitt” from HBO Max to win outstanding drama series. Its predicted lineup also includes Netflix’s “The Diplomat,” HBO Max’s “The Gilded Age” and “A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms,” Hulu’s “Paradise,” and Apple TV’s “Pluribus,” “Slow Horses” and “Your Friends and Neighbors.”

Comedy is forecast as an Apple TV party at the top. Variety predicts “Widow’s Bay” to win outstanding comedy series, over a field that includes ABC’s “Abbott Elementary,” FX’s “The Bear,” HBO Max’s “Hacks,” Apple TV’s “Margo’s Got Money Troubles” and “Shrinking,” Netflix’s “Nobody Wants This,” and Hulu’s “Only Murders in the Building.”

For limited or anthology series, Variety gives the edge to Netflix’s “Beef.” The predicted nominees also include Peacock’s “All Her Fault,” Netflix’s “The Beast in Me,” HBO Max’s “DTF St. Louis” and FX’s “Love Story: John F. Kennedy Jr. and Carolyn Bessette.”

In the TV movie category, Variety predicts Netflix’s “Remarkably Bright Creatures” to win, with Prime Video’s “Heads of State” and “Tom Clancy’s Jack Ryan: Ghost War,” HBO Max’s “Miss You, Love You” and Netflix’s “People We Meet on Vacation” also in the projected field.

Acting favorites include Wyle, Rhys and Smart

Variety’s acting picks include Noah Wyle for “The Pitt” in lead actor, drama, and Rhea Seehorn for “Pluribus” in lead actress, drama. In comedy, Matthew Rhys is predicted to win lead actor for “Widow’s Bay,” while Jean Smart is forecast for lead actress for “Hacks.”

For limited series or movie performances, Variety predicts Oscar Isaac to win lead actor for “Beef” and Carey Mulligan to win lead actress for the same Netflix title.

The supporting races bring more momentum for “The Pitt” and “Widow’s Bay.” Variety predicts Jack Lowden of “Slow Horses” for supporting actor, drama, and Katherine LaNasa of “The Pitt” for supporting actress, drama. In comedy, Harrison Ford is picked for “Shrinking,” while Kate O’Flynn is forecast to win for “Widow’s Bay.”

Other predicted winners include David Harbour for “DTF St. Louis” in supporting actor, limited series or movie, and Constance Zimmer for “Love Story: John F. Kennedy Jr. and Carolyn Bessette” in supporting actress, limited series or movie.

Variety, reality and nonfiction picks

Variety predicts “The Daily Show” to win variety series, “Jeopardy!” to win game show, “Survivor” to win competition program, “Love Is Blind” to win structured reality program and “Love on the Spectrum” to win unstructured reality program.

In nonfiction, Variety forecasts “My Mom Jayne: A Film by Mariska Hargitay” for documentary or nonfiction special and “Sean Combs: The Reckoning” for documentary or nonfiction series.

This story draws on original reporting from Variety.