Trump tariffs 2026 could keep coming after latest import-tax round
USTR’s next Section 301 probe could bring more 10% to 12.5% duties, analysts say, as court fights loom.
By Sal Moretti · Money Reporter
3 min read
The Trump tariffs 2026 push is not finished after Washington’s latest batch of import taxes, with analysts pointing to another investigation that could add fresh duties on major trading partners in the weeks ahead.
MarketWatch reported that the Trump administration moved Thursday evening to keep elevated tariffs in place for 60 economies. The Office of the U.S. Trade Representative set new import taxes of 10% to 12.5%, relying on a forced-labor investigation conducted under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974.
That inquiry ended last month, according to the USTR. A separate Section 301 investigation is still open, and it is focused on claims of excess manufacturing capacity.
Why are more Trump tariffs expected?
The next possible round is tied to overcapacity, which refers to countries making more goods than their markets can absorb and sending the surplus abroad. That can undercut factories in the importing country, according to the trade concern described by MarketWatch.
The USTR announced the overcapacity probe in March. It covers 16 economies, including the European Union, China, Mexico, Japan and India.
Chris Krueger, an analyst and managing director at TD Cowen’s Washington Research Group, said in a Friday note that the probe is likely to finish in the coming weeks. He said it is likely to produce tariffs in the 10% to 12.5% range that would be added on top of most current duties, and he said Chinese retaliation is likely.
How the tariff strategy shifted after court trouble
The latest tariff rollout came as an earlier set of levies was about to expire Friday, MarketWatch reported. Trump had used Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 in February to put a 10% global tariff in place for up to 150 days.
That move followed a Supreme Court ruling against Trump’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act for his import taxes, according to MarketWatch. The administration has since leaned on other trade-law tools, including Section 301.
Jim Reid, head of macroeconomic research at Deutsche Bank, said in a Friday note that Section 301 tariffs are still open to review and legal fights, but are generally seen as sturdier than the framework rejected by courts earlier this year.
Reid said tariffs are increasingly becoming part of U.S. economic policy. He pointed to recent announcements including a 25% tariff on many Brazilian goods, threats of additional duties on Canadian imports and the prospect of a 100% tariff on imported generic pharmaceuticals from 2028.
Legal fights may be next
Jennifer Hillman, a former USTR general counsel during the Clinton administration and now a professor at Georgetown University’s law school, told MarketWatch earlier this week that the forced-labor tariffs could face a challenge.
Hillman said challengers may argue that the administration stretched the statute too far. She also said there may be a challenge to the investigation itself, including whether officials examined forced-labor practices in each affected country.
For investors, Reid said the focus is turning to what comes after the latest tariff decisions: exemptions, country-by-country negotiations, sector probes and additional rounds. His read is that court rulings threatened to cut back Trump’s trade agenda, but the administration has shown another route for rebuilding much of it on a firmer legal base.
This story draws on original reporting from MarketWatch.