2026 NFL QB battles: ESPN picks Week 1 starters for four teams
ESPN’s Dan Graziano projects the Falcons, Browns, Raiders and Vikings quarterback races after checking with NFL executives.
By Georgia Hale · Staff Writer
4 min read
The 2026 NFL QB battles drawing the loudest preseason buzz have early favorites, at least according to ESPN senior NFL reporter Dan Graziano, who checked with league executives, scouts, coaches and agents before training camps.
Graziano spotlighted four quarterback competitions: the Falcons with Michael Penix Jr. and Tua Tagovailoa, the Browns with Shedeur Sanders and Deshaun Watson, the Raiders with Kirk Cousins, Fernando Mendoza and Aidan O’Connell, and the Vikings with J.J. McCarthy and Kyler Murray.
Who will start at quarterback for the Falcons, Browns, Raiders and Vikings?
ESPN’s Week 1 projections are Tagovailoa for Atlanta, Watson for Cleveland, Cousins for Las Vegas and Murray for Minnesota. Graziano stressed that camps and preseason work can still change the picture, especially where health and rookie development are involved.
Falcons: Tagovailoa is the pick over Penix, largely because Penix is returning from a torn ACL suffered in November. ESPN noted it was the third ACL tear of Penix’s career.
Browns: Watson is projected to open for new coach Todd Monken, though ESPN reported a common league view that Sanders needs meaningful game time before Cleveland weighs its future at quarterback.
Raiders: Cousins is the favorite, with ESPN reporting that Las Vegas does not currently plan to rush No. 1 pick Mendoza into the opener.
Vikings: Murray gets the nod over McCarthy after Minnesota’s difficult 2025 season at quarterback, though ESPN described that competition as real.
Why is Tua Tagovailoa favored in Atlanta?
Tagovailoa joined the Falcons on a veterans minimum deal after the Dolphins released him despite $54 million in guaranteed money remaining, according to ESPN. Penix, the No. 8 pick in 2024, has only 12 NFL starts and is still working back from knee surgery.
Graziano reported that Tagovailoa has been able to take spring reps under Atlanta’s new staff while Penix recovers. One NFC personnel executive told ESPN that Penix’s injury history was a concern dating to college.
Atlanta’s new leadership also did not draft Penix. ESPN noted that general manager Ian Cunningham, coach Kevin Stefanski and president of football Matt Ryan inherited that decision, while the team is built to try to win now.
Why could Shedeur Sanders still play for the Browns?
Watson is entering the final year of his five-year, $230 million fully guaranteed contract and is due $46 million this season, according to ESPN. Graziano reported that cutting him now would create major dead-money cap charges, making it more likely Cleveland keeps him on the roster.
Sanders started the final seven games last season after Joe Flacco was traded and Dillon Gabriel struggled. ESPN listed Sanders’ 2025 line as 120 completions on 212 attempts for 1,400 yards, seven touchdowns and 10 interceptions, with Cleveland going 3-4 in his starts.
An AFC front office executive told ESPN that Cleveland has to play Sanders at some point because the organization knows Watson is unlikely to be there beyond this season.
Why are the Raiders waiting on Fernando Mendoza?
Mendoza arrived as the No. 1 overall pick after leading Indiana to an undefeated season, a national championship and winning the Heisman Trophy, according to ESPN. The Raiders also signed Cousins to a one-year, $11.3 million contract after Atlanta released him.
Graziano reported that people around the team believe Las Vegas wants Mendoza to adjust before taking over. An AFC assistant coach told ESPN the Raiders might even turn to O’Connell before Mendoza if Cousins were injured right now.
Why is Kyler Murray ahead in Minnesota?
McCarthy, the No. 10 pick in 2024, missed his rookie season with a knee injury and then struggled in 2025. ESPN listed his 10 starts last season at 1,632 passing yards, 11 touchdowns, 12 interceptions, six fumbles and 27 sacks.
Murray signed with Minnesota after Arizona released him with $37 million guaranteed left on his contract, according to ESPN. His Vikings deal includes a clause preventing the team from using the franchise or transition tag on him next year.
Graziano reported that Murray impressed Minnesota in the spring with his arm talent, while the Vikings want to see McCarthy improve the variety and touch of his throws. For now, ESPN’s read is that Murray has the cleaner path to Week 1.
This story draws on original reporting from ESPN.com.