Esmerlyn Valdez's power binge comes with a sell-high warning

Esmerlyn Valdez has blasted his way into rare rookie company, and CBS Sports fantasy analyst Chris Towers is still telling managers to see what the trade market will pay.

According to ESPN, the Pirates rookie became the fourth player in MLB history to produce at least 12 home runs and 31 RBI through his first 31 games after going deep Sunday. Towers wrote that Valdez followed with another homer Monday, giving him 12 homers and 33 RBI through 32 games.

The surge has made Valdez a fantasy darling. Towers noted that since Valdez returned from Triple-A on June 11, he has been tied for fourth in the majors in homers, and his .485 wOBA entering Tuesday led all players.

That is the shiny part. The warning label is the swing-and-miss. Towers pointed to Valdez's 38% strikeout rate after two more strikeouts Monday, along with a 66.5% zone contact rate that he called a major problem. He wrote that Valdez has real MLB ability, but also limitations that pitchers may still expose.

The scary comps

Towers compared Valdez's opening power burst with three recent players who started their careers on similar heaters: Aristides Aquino, Rhys Hoskins and Will Smith.

Aquino hit 15 homers in his first 32 games in 2019 with a 23.3% strikeout rate, according to Towers. He then hit four homers across his next 24 games while striking out 31% of the time, and Towers wrote that he did not become a regular big-leaguer again.

Hoskins hit 16 homers in his first 32 games with a 19% strikeout rate, then homered in his 33rd and 34th games before finishing that season with a .179/.342/.339 line, Towers wrote. Smith, who hit 12 homers in his first 32 games despite a 29% strikeout rate, later became a star, but Towers noted he also cooled to .200/.296/.343 over his final 22 games that season.

Towers' bottom line: Valdez may still finish as a major power threat, perhaps in the 35-plus homer range, but he sees a likely batting-average slide and views the rookie as more of an all-or-nothing fantasy bat from here.

Who is moving up

Towers also highlighted three players gaining fantasy steam after Monday's games.

• Jazz Chisholm hit two homers Monday and reached 16 homers and 26 steals in 95 games. Towers wrote that Chisholm is tracking near his 2024 pace, though a career-high 29.9% strikeout rate has dragged down his batting average.
• Chase DeLauter went 4 for 5 with two doubles and three RBI. Since returning from the injured list, Towers wrote, he is hitting .360 with four homers, 15 RBI, an OPS above .900 and two steals in 18 games.
• Mookie Betts went 4 for 5 with two homers Monday, his first multi-hit game since July 2 and his first homer since June 27, according to Towers.

Pitchers flashing red

On the downside, Towers flagged Braxton Ashcraft, Joe Ryan and Emmett Sheehan.

Ashcraft allowed seven earned runs in three innings against the Yankees on Monday and has given up 18 runs over his past 19.2 innings, Towers wrote. Ryan matched an MLB record by allowing six homers Monday, though Towers framed it as an extreme fly-ball pitcher running into the risk that comes with his profile.

Sheehan, meanwhile, drew a sharper fantasy warning. Towers wrote that his fastball has been hit hard, his ERA sits at 5.13, and he is no longer a must-roster pitcher in shallower leagues.

This story draws on original reporting from CBS Sports.