ESPN tags Jaxson Dart and Carnell Tate as fantasy breakout bets

Jaxson Dart is the headliner in ESPN’s latest hunt for the next wave of fantasy football breakouts, with senior writer Mike Clay pointing to the quarterback’s rushing skill as the trait that could swing drafts in 2026.

Clay built his list by comparing this season’s players with the fantasy profiles of 2025 breakouts. He stressed that the picks are candidates in similar situations, rather than guaranteed stars.

Dart, Clay’s choice to follow the Year 2 quarterback jumps made by Drake Maye and Caleb Williams, flashed as a rookie with eight top-10 fantasy weeks despite playing most of the snaps in only 12 games, according to Clay. Only four quarterbacks had more such weeks, he wrote.

Clay also cited Dart’s rushing production, John Harbaugh as his head coach, and an improved group around him that includes Malik Nabers, when healthy, and Isaiah Likely. Tyler Shough was listed as another candidate in that quarterback bucket.

Rookies with instant-use potential

Carnell Tate was Clay’s pick to mirror the rookie wide receiver rise of Tetairoa McMillan and Emeka Egbuka. Clay noted Tate went fourth overall in April’s draft and said recent top-10 wideout selections have averaged about a quarter of their teams’ targets while usually producing in the WR2 or WR3 range.

Tate’s hurdles, according to Clay, include competition from Wan’Dale Robinson and Calvin Ridley, plus the need for Cam Ward to improve in his second season. Jordyn Tyson, Makai Lemon and KC Concepcion were also mentioned as rookie wideout alternatives.

At running back, Clay lined up Jeremiyah Love as this season’s version of Ashton Jeanty. Love was drafted third overall, and Clay wrote that the past nine running backs taken in the top 12 all finished as top-12 fantasy scorers at the position as rookies. He described Love as capable as a runner, receiver and blocker.

Kenyon Sadiq was Clay’s rookie tight end to watch. Selected 16th overall, Sadiq could become Geno Smith’s second or third option, Clay wrote, while highlighting his 4.39 speed at 241 pounds.

Veterans in new spots

Clay’s veteran quarterback rebound pick was Justin Herbert, compared with the strong 2025 seasons from Matthew Stafford and Trevor Lawrence. Clay noted Herbert has one career fantasy finish better than ninth, but also ranked second among quarterbacks in rushing yards last season and now has Mike McDaniel calling the offense.

Kenneth Walker III was the veteran running back change-of-scenery choice, in the mold of Javonte Williams and Kenny Gainwell. Clay wrote that Walker joined the Chiefs in free agency and has a clear route to a featured role in a strong offense.

For receivers, Clay chose Jaylen Waddle as a possible George Pickens-style mover after joining Denver. Clay wrote that Waddle has finished outside the top 20 fantasy receivers in each of the past three seasons, both overall and by points per game, but could lead Sean Payton and Bo Nix’s offense in targets and catches.

Clay’s deeper shots included Rams tight end Terrance Ferguson, whose rookie average depth of target led qualifying tight ends over at least the past decade by Clay’s accounting, and Jack Bech, a late-round receiver flier with a new playcaller, a new quarterback and limited target competition.

This story draws on original reporting from ESPN.com.