Fernando Mendoza props put Raiders win total under spotlight

Fernando Mendoza props are already on the board, but the first Raiders drama of camp is simpler: will the No. 1 overall pick beat out Kirk Cousins for the Week 1 job?

CBS Sports HQ is set to visit Raiders training camp in Henderson, Nevada, on Wednesday, with Las Vegas entering camp after a sharp reset. CBS Sports’ Matt Severance reported that the Raiders have a new head coach in Klint Kubiak and a rookie quarterback in Mendoza, the 2025 Heisman Trophy winner.

Severance noted that Mendoza won a championship at Indiana last season, while Kubiak won one as offensive coordinator of the Seattle Seahawks. If Mendoza becomes the starter, CBS Sports said the pair would be the first rookie starting quarterback and rookie head coach in NFL history to arrive together after championship seasons.

The offensive contrast is not subtle. Indiana averaged 41.6 points per game last season, third in FBS, while Seattle averaged 28.4 points, third in the NFL, according to CBS Sports. The Raiders finished last in the league in 2025 at 14.2 points per game.

Will Fernando Mendoza start Week 1 for the Raiders?

Severance wrote that he expects Mendoza to start Week 1 at home against Miami, with Las Vegas listed as a 3.5-point favorite. He also reported that FanDuel had Cousins as the favorite in the Week 1 quarterback market shortly after the draft, though that prop is no longer available.

Kubiak, however, said Cousins would begin Wednesday’s first practice as the No. 1 quarterback. “He’s the guy, and he deserves it because he’s played really good football,” Kubiak said, according to CBS Sports. The coach added that he wants Mendoza and Aidan O’Connell to push Cousins, and described camp reps as a “moving target.”

Mendoza signed his rookie contract last week, CBS Sports reported. He is listed as the +425 second choice behind Arizona running back Jeremiah Love for NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year, and his posted season totals include 2,399.5 passing yards and 12.5 touchdown passes.

Those totals sit low for a full 17-game season, and Severance suggested sportsbooks may be protecting themselves in case Cousins wins the job. Cousins season totals are not available, according to CBS Sports.

Should you bet Raiders under 6.5 wins?

Severance’s clearest betting call is on the Raiders’ season total. He wrote that sportsbooks generally have Las Vegas at either 5.5 or 6.5 wins, and he prefers under 6.5.

The case rests heavily on recent rookie quarterback history. CBS Sports reported that six straight quarterbacks drafted No. 1 overall failed to win six games as rookies, with Baker Mayfield in 2018 the most recent to reach that number, finishing with exactly six wins in Cleveland.

Severance also noted that, among No. 1 overall quarterbacks who started as rookies, only Sam Bradford with seven wins for the 2010 Rams and Andrew Luck with 11 for the 2012 Colts won more than six games. Carson Palmer was excluded because he did not start as a rookie.

The Raiders’ own quarterback churn adds to the under argument. Since Derek Carr left, CBS Sports said the team’s past three Week 1 starters, Jimmy Garoppolo in 2023, Gardner Minshew in 2024 and Geno Smith last season, combined for a 7-23 record with 35 touchdown passes and 36 interceptions.

The SportsLine Projection Model has the Raiders at 4.7 wins, according to CBS Sports.

Why Mendoza overs still have support

Severance still leans over on Mendoza’s passing yards and touchdown props because he believes the rookie either wins the job or gets it early. He pointed to Smith throwing for 3,025 yards and 19 touchdowns in 15 games last season.

The Raiders have skill players around Mendoza, led by running back Ashton Jeanty and tight end Brock Bowers, according to CBS Sports. The team also added Pro Bowl center Tyler Linderbaum from the Ravens on a record-setting free-agent deal.

CBS Sports reported the current roster includes 30 rookies and 16 new veterans. If Mendoza plays with Linderbaum, he would become the first rookie quarterback since Cam Newton in 2011 to work with a center coming off a Pro Bowl season.

This story draws on original reporting from CBS Sports.