Messi lurks as Kane leads a muddled Ballon d’Or chase
CBS Sports says Harry Kane remains the favorite, but a messy World Cup finish has put Lionel Messi back in the Ballon d’Or frame.
By Deshawn Carter · Sports Writer
3 min read
Harry Kane has the numbers. Lionel Messi has the late-stage intrigue.
CBS Sports’ Chuck Booth reports that the Ballon d’Or race has been blown open after Kane, Michael Olise and Kylian Mbappe all failed to win the 2026 World Cup. Booth wrote that the award looked like a three-player fight before the tournament, but the post-World Cup picture is far less tidy.
Kane is still described by CBS Sports as the current odds-on favorite. The Bayern Munich striker has the most combined goals and assists among the main candidates listed by the outlet, with 73 goals and eight assists across 65 matches for club and country.
That is a monster résumé, and CBS Sports listed his honors as the Bundesliga Golden Boot, Bundesliga title, DFB Pokal, German Super Cup and DFB Pokal Golden Boot. Booth noted, though, that Kane did not win the World Cup and was not the sole top scorer for England at the tournament.
The award rules add to the scramble
According to CBS Sports, the Ballon d’Or now covers a standard European season from Aug. 1 to July 31, a change in place since the 2025 edition won by Ousmane Dembele. Players outside leagues that follow the European calendar remain eligible, with geographic limits on the award having ended in 2007.
Booth reported that voting is built around three broad areas: individual performance, team success and class and fair play. The last of those, he wrote, brings more subjectivity into a race already complicated by the World Cup.
The outlet also pointed to recent Ballon d’Or history as a warning against treating the race as a math problem. Robert Lewandowski was favored in 2020 before the award was canceled because of COVID, then finished second to Messi in 2021, when a striker-focused honor was introduced. Lewandowski won that striker award in consecutive seasons, according to CBS Sports.
The main contenders
CBS Sports listed the leading candidates and their club-and-country totals as follows:
- Harry Kane, Bayern Munich and England: 65 matches, 73 goals, eight assists, 81 goal contributions.
- Kylian Mbappe, Real Madrid and France: 60 matches, 58 goals, 13 assists, 71 goal contributions.
- Lamine Yamal, Barcelona and Spain: 57 matches, 25 goals, 20 assists, 45 goal contributions.
- Lionel Messi, Inter Miami and Argentina: 49 matches, 45 goals, 31 assists, 76 goal contributions.
- Rodri, Manchester City and Spain: 46 matches, two goals, no assists.
Mbappe’s case includes the LaLiga Golden Boot, the World Cup Golden Boot and the Champions League Golden Boot, according to CBS Sports. Yet Booth wrote that a World Cup title would have given either Mbappe or Kane a much stronger argument, and both instead ended up in the third-place game.
Spain’s World Cup win gives Yamal and Rodri team glory, but CBS Sports identified flaws in both campaigns. Booth wrote that Yamal scored once at the World Cup, while Rodri dealt with injuries during what the outlet called a down year for Manchester City.
That leaves Messi hovering over the race again. CBS Sports credited him with an MLS Cup, MLS MVP and MLS Golden Boot, while noting that Argentina did not win the World Cup.
Booth argued that Messi’s production for Inter Miami and Argentina, 45 goals and 31 assists in 49 matches, keeps him in serious contention. At 39, CBS Sports said this could be his final realistic shot at adding to his record eight Ballon d’Or wins.
Kane remains the front-runner in Booth’s analysis, especially with the ceremony taking place in London. The catch is that a human vote, a crowded field and Messi’s latest pile of goals could make this race far less predictable than the raw totals suggest.
This story draws on original reporting from CBS Sports.