CBS Sports tags Mike Norvell as first coach at risk in 2026
CBS Sports' Cody Nagel says Florida State's Mike Norvell faces the quickest hook, while USC's Lincoln Riley is best placed to cool his seat.
By Georgia Hale · Staff Writer
3 min read
Florida State coach Mike Norvell is the name CBS Sports’ Cody Nagel puts at the front of the 2026 firing-watch line, with USC’s Lincoln Riley cast as the coach most likely to shake off the pressure.
Nagel’s hot-seat read comes after a 2025 cycle that split hard. Louisiana Tech’s Sonny Cumbie entered last season under major scrutiny and answered with eight wins, while Oklahoma’s Brent Venables took the Sooners to the College Football Playoff. On the other side, Trent Dilfer, Hugh Freeze, Mike Gundy, Sam Pittman and Brent Pry were all fired after beginning the year in difficult spots, according to CBS Sports.
Why Norvell is under the glare
Nagel points to Florida State’s sharp fall as the reason Norvell is in the most immediate danger. The Seminoles went 5-7 last season after a 2-10 year, missing a bowl for the second straight season. That came not long after Florida State went 13-0 and won the ACC in 2023.
The contract math is a major piece of the story. CBS Sports reports that firing Norvell after the 2025 season would have carried a buyout of about $58.4 million. After this season, the estimated cost drops to $45.6 million.
The schedule does him no favors in Nagel’s view. FanDuel Sportsbook lists Florida State’s win total at 6.5, with the under favored. CBS Sports notes that the Seminoles could open 1-2 if they lose to SMU on Labor Day and at Alabama after a bye.
October is just as nasty. Florida State is scheduled to face Virginia, Louisville, Miami and Clemson, with the Clemson game set for Halloween.
The roster is another concern cited by CBS Sports. Florida State added more than 20 players through the transfer portal, but the offense brings back only two starters. Quarterback Ashton Daniels arrives after two previous college stops, and Nagel questions whether the rebuilt group can come together quickly against what he calls the ACC’s toughest schedule.
Norvell is also taking back play-calling duties after Gus Malzahn handled them last season. CBS Sports notes that Norvell ran high-powered Florida State offenses during the 2022 and 2023 rise, but frames the move as part of his push to protect his job.
Norvell addressed the pressure at ACC spring meetings in May, saying he expected 2026 to be “the best year of my life” and that the past two seasons had helped him grow as a coach, according to CBS Sports.
Why Riley could cool things down at USC
Riley lands on the opposite side of Nagel’s forecast. CBS Sports says most of its 10-person panel rated Riley a 4 on its hot-seat scale, meaning “start improving now,” but Nagel sees USC as positioned for a breakthrough in Riley’s fifth season.
The case starts with what is coming back. CBS Sports reports that USC leads the FBS with 15 returning starters and ranks 10th nationally in returning snap percentage. Quarterback Jayden Maiava is entering his second season as the full-time starter.
USC also brings in the No. 1 recruiting class in 247Sports’ 2026 team rankings, according to CBS Sports. The Trojans finished 7-2 in Big Ten play last season, and Nagel argues the mix of experience, recruiting and quarterback continuity could push them toward the College Football Playoff.
The path is far from soft. USC faces Oregon, Ohio State and Indiana in Big Ten play, and FanDuel sets the Trojans’ win total at 8.5 with the under favored, CBS Sports reports.
Defense remains the question. CBS Sports says Gary Patterson taking over that side of the ball should help a unit that still has to prove it can stand up to the Big Ten’s top teams. No response from Riley was cited in CBS Sports’ report.
This story draws on original reporting from CBS Sports.