MLB home run picks July 27: Contreras joins Garcia and Herrera
SportsLine’s Jacob Fetner named three Monday HR props, citing odds, handedness splits and weather at three ballparks.
By Georgia Hale · Staff Writer
3 min read
SportsLine data analyst Jacob Fetner has posted his MLB home run picks July 27, with Willson Contreras, Luis Garcia and Ivan Herrera named as Monday’s three home run prop selections, according to CBS Sports.
CBS Sports reported that Monday’s MLB card includes Yankees vs. White Sox, Cubs vs. Cardinals and Phillies vs. Marlins, giving bettors a full slate of player props to sort through. A home run prop is a wager on whether a specific player will hit a homer in that game, with the listed odds showing the price available at a sportsbook.
Fetner’s three plays, as listed by CBS Sports, are Garcia of the Nationals at +350 via Hard Rock Bet, Herrera of the Cardinals at +650 via Hard Rock Bet and Contreras of the Red Sox at +371 via DraftKings. CBS Sports also said the three picks could be combined into a parlay returning more than 150-1 on some betting apps.
What are the MLB home run picks for July 27?
- Luis Garcia, Nationals: +350 at Hard Rock Bet, according to CBS Sports
- Ivan Herrera, Cardinals: +650 at Hard Rock Bet, according to CBS Sports
- Willson Contreras, Red Sox: +371 at DraftKings, according to CBS Sports
CBS Sports said Fetner entered Monday with a recent run of home run calls, including 17 correct picks over the final six weeks before the All-Star break. The report cited recent winning selections on Nationals infielder Luis Garcia at +600, Giants infielder Casey Schmitt at +590 and Phillies infielder Alec Bohm at +820.
CBS Sports also reported that Fetner was up 50 units on MLB home run picks last year and recently hit a home run parlay that paid more than 30-1.
Why did Jacob Fetner pick Willson Contreras?
Fetner’s case for Contreras centers on right-handed pitching and the conditions at Sutter Health Park, according to CBS Sports. The report said Contreras is batting .292 with a .915 OPS in 290 plate appearances against right-handed pitchers this season, and that 15 of his 22 home runs have come against righties.
CBS Sports said Fetner also pointed to Jack Perkins’ numbers against right-handed hitters: a .825 OPS allowed in 135 plate appearances. The report said Perkins has given up seven homers across his past six starts, including two starts with multiple home runs allowed.
Contreras has hit two home runs in his past five road games, according to CBS Sports. Fetner rated the home run index at Sutter Health Park an 8 out of 10 and said his weather-adjusted number on Contreras was +338, making the available +371 price the value in his view.
What is the case for Luis Garcia and Ivan Herrera?
For Garcia, CBS Sports said Fetner highlighted a platoon edge against right-hander Max Scherzer. Garcia has a .938 OPS against right-handed pitching this season, while left-handed hitters have posted a 1.067 OPS against Scherzer in 69 plate appearances, according to the report.
CBS Sports said Scherzer has allowed five home runs over his past two starts, both multi-homer outings, while Garcia has hit six home runs in his past 14 home games. The report also said Garcia is 6-for-11 lifetime against Scherzer with two homers, and that Fetner rated Nationals Park’s home run index an 8 out of 10.
Herrera’s pick leans heavily on weather, according to CBS Sports, with Fetner rating Busch Stadium’s home run index a 10 out of 10. The report said Herrera owns an .804 OPS against left-handed pitching this season, while David Peterson has allowed a .789 OPS to right-handed hitters in 280 plate appearances.
CBS Sports said Peterson has surrendered five homers over his past six starts. Herrera, according to the report, homered in his most recent game and is 2-for-3 in his career against Peterson.
This story draws on original reporting from CBS Sports.