MLB picks July 27: SportsLine model backs Pirates in parlay
SportsLine says its MLB model likes Pirates -120 against the Diamondbacks as part of a Monday parlay priced near +500.
By Deshawn Carter · Sports Writer
3 min read
SportsLine’s latest MLB picks July 27 start in Pittsburgh, where its projection model is backing the Pirates at -120 against the Arizona Diamondbacks on Monday night.
CBS Sports reported that the SportsLine Projection Model simulated every Major League Baseball game on Monday’s 12-game card 10,000 times and identified three best bets for a parlay that would return nearly +500 if all three legs hit.
Only one of those selections was disclosed publicly: Pirates -120 against the Diamondbacks at 6:40 p.m. ET. The remaining parlay legs were available through SportsLine, according to CBS Sports.
What are the MLB picks for July 27?
The public pick from SportsLine’s model is Pittsburgh over Arizona at -120. CBS Sports said the model also has an underdog selection included in the three-leg parlay, but did not identify that team outside SportsLine.
The Pirates enter the matchup with recent head-to-head success against Arizona, according to CBS Sports. Pittsburgh has won four of the last five meetings and six of the last eight, including two wins in a three-game set at Arizona in May.
Pittsburgh is scheduled to start right-hander Mitch Keller, who is listed at 6-7 with a 4.90 ERA. CBS Sports reported that Keller’s last start came Wednesday against the New York Yankees, when he worked five innings in a 5-3, 10-inning Pirates win, allowing three hits and two walks while striking out six and giving up no earned runs.
Arizona is set to counter with right-hander Merrill Kelly, listed at 8-8 with a 5.12 ERA. Kelly has earned a win in three of his last four starts, according to CBS Sports. In his most recent outing, a 15-5 win over the Athletics on Wednesday, he allowed five hits, two earned runs and one walk over five innings while striking out three.
What other games are on Monday’s MLB betting board?
The Monday slate includes 12 games, with CBS Sports pointing to Cubs vs. Cardinals as a key National League Central matchup at 7:45 p.m. ET. Chicago was listed as a -120 favorite in that game, with left-hander David Peterson, 5-7 with a 5.97 ERA, expected to start for the Cubs. St. Louis had not named a starter, according to CBS Sports.
Other games highlighted by CBS Sports included Mariners vs. Rangers, Orioles vs. Tigers, Guardians vs. Reds, and Diamondbacks vs. Pirates. The Braves were listed as -112 favorites against the New York Mets, while the Yankees were -148 road favorites against the Chicago White Sox.
What does nearly +500 mean for a parlay?
A parlay combines multiple picks into one bet, and every leg must win for the ticket to cash. Odds near +500 mean a successful $100 wager would profit close to $500, before returning the original stake.
SportsLine said its model entered Week 19 of the MLB season on a 39-23 run on top-rated MLB picks. CBS Sports also reported that the model returned nearly 30 units of profit on home run prop picks in 2025.
As with any betting projection, the model’s pick is not a result. Monday’s games still have to do the talking on the field.
This story draws on original reporting from CBS Sports.