Royals vs. Tigers prediction points to Over as Detroit opens as favorite
SportsLine’s model projects 8.4 runs for Royals-Tigers on July 25, with Detroit favored at home and the total set at 8.
By Georgia Hale · Staff Writer
3 min read
The latest Royals vs. Tigers prediction from SportsLine’s computer model is leaning toward runs Saturday, even with Casey Mize and Michael Wacha lined up for an early American League Central matchup in Detroit.
First pitch at Comerica Park is scheduled for 1:10 p.m. ET on July 25, according to CBS Sports. Detroit is listed as the money-line favorite at -160, while Kansas City is priced at +135. The total is set at 8 runs, and the Tigers run line is -1.5 at +132.
The pitching matchup gives the game its hook. CBS Sports lists Wacha at 5-7 with a 3.66 ERA for Kansas City, while Mize enters for Detroit at 4-6 with a 2.79 ERA. The Royals will be without Bobby Witt Jr., who is out with a back issue, CBS Sports reported.
Both clubs are described by CBS Sports as sitting near the bottom of the AL Central, though still close enough to make up ground on the White Sox and Guardians if they put together a run.
What is the Royals vs. Tigers prediction?
SportsLine says its projection model simulated the game 10,000 times and made the Over 8 runs its public betting call. The model projects the teams to combine for 8.4 runs, which puts the total just above the current number.
SportsLine’s reasoning, as reported by CBS Sports, is tied partly to the market move. The total had been 8.5 before dropping to 8, and the model sees that lower number as creating value on the Over despite the starting pitching matchup.
The model also projects several hitters to reach at least 1.4 total bases. For Kansas City, SportsLine lists Jac Caglianone and Vinnie Pasquantino in that group. For Detroit, the model points to Riley Greene, Kevin McGonigle and Kerry Carpenter.
What do the Royals vs. Tigers odds mean?
A -160 money line means Detroit is favored, requiring a $160 stake to win $100 before accounting for sportsbook rules and any fees. Kansas City at +135 means a $100 stake would return $135 in profit if the Royals win outright.
The over/under of 8 is a bet on the combined number of runs scored by both teams. An Over ticket needs 9 or more total runs to win, while exactly 8 would typically push if the bet is placed at a flat 8.
SportsLine also says its model has identified value on one side of the money line, but CBS Sports reported that pick is available through SportsLine. The publicly disclosed selection is the Over 8 runs.
CBS Sports says the SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. The report says the model entered Week 18 of the MLB season on a 35-21 run on top-rated MLB picks and returned nearly 30 units of profit on home run prop picks in 2025.
The game is listed for streaming on Fubo, according to CBS Sports.
This story draws on original reporting from CBS Sports.