Royals vs. Twins picks: Joe Ryan spotlights Minnesota’s playoff push
Minnesota hosts Kansas City with Joe Ryan on the mound, playoff odds rising and a chance to move above .500 for the first time since April.
By Deshawn Carter · Sports Writer
3 min read
The latest Royals vs Twins picks from CBS Sports analyst Matt Severance point to Minnesota, with Joe Ryan starting Wednesday night as the Twins try to climb above .500 for the first time since April.
First pitch is listed for 7:40 p.m. ET at Target Field. CBS Sports reported Minnesota as a -180 consensus money-line favorite, with the Royals at 45-63 and the Twins at 54-54 entering the matchup.
Severance’s same-game parlay paired the Twins money line with under 1.5 runs in the first inning. CBS Sports listed the DraftKings price for that combo at +102.
What is the Royals vs. Twins pick?
Severance backed Minnesota to win behind Ryan and also liked a quiet first inning. His case leaned on Ryan’s longer track record against Kansas City, the Royals’ recent trouble with runners in scoring position and Minnesota’s position in the playoff race.
CBS Sports reported that Minnesota is two games out of first place in the AL Central and a half-game back of the American League’s final wild-card spot. The SportsLine Projection Model gives the Twins a 42.3% chance to reach the postseason, while DraftKings listed Minnesota at +185 to make the playoffs by any route, according to CBS Sports.
Ryan, 30, enters the game at 6-6 with a 3.38 ERA and 1.10 WHIP. CBS Sports noted that he is making $6 million this season and has a $13 million mutual option for next season that the Twins are expected to exercise.
The right-hander’s last outing was a rough one in Cleveland. CBS Sports reported that Ryan allowed eight runs and 10 hits over four innings, including six home runs, which the outlet described as both a career high and a franchise record.
That start followed what CBS Sports described as arm fatigue, after Minnesota pushed Ryan back from a planned Sunday return. Severance wrote that he did not put too much weight on the Cleveland blowup because Ryan had been pitching well before the All-Star break and threw a scoreless inning in the All-Star Game.
How has Joe Ryan done against Kansas City?
Ryan’s 2026 results against the Royals have been mixed. CBS Sports listed him at 0-1 with a 5.40 ERA across two starts and 10 innings, with Kansas City hitters batting .357 against him.
Most of that damage came April 1 in Kansas City, when Ryan gave up five runs in four innings. In his June 6 home start against the Royals, he allowed one run over six innings and did not factor in the decision, according to CBS Sports.
His career numbers against Kansas City are far better: a 2.49 ERA, 0.98 WHIP and .205 batting average against in 13 starts, CBS Sports reported. The SportsLine model projected Ryan for 5.3 innings, 5.8 strikeouts, 4.5 hits allowed and 1.9 earned runs.
The Royals may also be short-handed. CBS Sports reported that Vinnie Pasquantino was expected to sit after leaving Tuesday’s game with a hand issue, while Kansas City remains without injured All-Star shortstop Bobby Witt Jr.
Kansas City is expected to use Randy Dobnak, who has a 0-0 record and 1.42 ERA, in what CBS Sports described as a likely bullpen-style game. Dobnak spent the first six seasons of his major-league career with Minnesota and would be facing his former team for the first time.
SportsLine projected Dobnak for 5.5 innings, 3.8 strikeouts, 5.1 hits allowed and 2.4 earned runs. CBS Sports also noted that the Royals have hit .180 with runners in scoring position since the All-Star break.
This story draws on original reporting from CBS Sports.