Sandy Alcantara start puts Marlins’ deadline dilemma in spotlight
Miami’s ace faces Houston as an eight-game skid has revived questions about whether the Marlins could move him before the trade deadline.
By Deshawn Carter · Sports Writer
3 min read
Sandy Alcantara takes the mound in Houston on Wednesday with the Marlins wobbling, the trade deadline looming and betting markets treating the Astros as slight favorites.
The Marlins enter the 8:10 p.m. ET game at 52-49 after losing eight straight, according to CBS Sports. Houston is 48-54, and DraftKings had the Astros at -120 on the moneyline, Miami at +102, with the total set at 8.
Alcantara, the 2022 NL Cy Young winner, has been floated as a possible trade target, though Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic and other national MLB reporters said on July 10 that Miami was expected to keep him. CBS Sports betting writer Matt Severance noted that the picture looked different then: the Marlins were riding a six-game winning streak, sitting 10 games over .500 and pushing toward both the NL East race and the wild-card mix.
That push has stalled hard. CBS Sports reported Miami is now tied for the final National League wild-card spot, while the SportsLine Projection Model gives the club an 18.9% chance to make the postseason. DraftKings listed the Marlins at +370 to reach the playoffs, which CBS Sports said implies a 21.3% chance.
Alcantara’s value is tied to durability
Alcantara brings a 10-5 record and 3.89 ERA into the game, according to CBS Sports. He also leads the majors with 162.2 innings pitched, a key part of his appeal for contenders looking for rotation stability.
His contract is part of the deadline conversation. CBS Sports reported Alcantara is owed $21 million next season if Miami exercises its club option, and he is scheduled to become a free agent in 2027.
The right-hander missed all of 2024 after Tommy John surgery, according to CBS Sports, but has reestablished himself as a high-volume starter. He won seven consecutive starts before going winless in his last two outings, both of which CBS Sports described as quality starts with limited run support.
Run support has shaped his stat line. CBS Sports reported Alcantara is 1-4 with a 5.15 ERA in six starts when Miami scores two or fewer total runs, 1-1 with a 3.51 ERA when the Marlins score three to five, and 8-0 with a 3.38 ERA when they score more than six.
Houston counters with Peter Lambert
The Astros send Peter Lambert to the mound, and CBS Sports credited his breakout season as a major reason Houston remains close enough to matter in the American League West and wild-card races.
Lambert is 8-5 with a 3.03 ERA. CBS Sports reported he struggled across his first four MLB seasons with Colorado, spent last year in Japan, signed a minor-league deal with Houston and began this season at Triple-A.
Severance wrote that the Astros appear to have adjusted Lambert’s mechanics. CBS Sports reported his arm slot changed from 54 degrees in 2024 to 49 degrees this season, helping add movement to his four-seam fastball. His strikeout rate on that pitch has risen from 13.2% two years ago to 23.9%.
SportsLine projects Alcantara for 6.9 innings, 5.4 strikeouts, 5.6 hits allowed and 2.8 earned runs. The model projects Lambert for 5.3 innings, 5.1 strikeouts, 5.2 hits allowed and 2.2 earned runs.
For his same-game parlay, Severance picked Houston +1.5, under 1.5 first-inning runs and alternate under 10.5 total runs at +137 on DraftKings. He cited Miami’s cold offense and the cushion of taking Houston on the run line.
This story draws on original reporting from CBS Sports.