Scheffler towers over 3M Open odds as model backs a longshot
FanDuel lists Scottie Scheffler at +240 for TPC Twin Cities, while SportsLine’s model fades Maverick McNealy and flags Johnny Keefer at +6500.
By Deshawn Carter · Sports Writer
3 min read
Scottie Scheffler is the clear betting heavyweight at the 2026 3M Open, and the gap behind him is wide enough to drive a tour van through.
The PGA Tour stop begins Thursday at TPC Twin Cities in the Minneapolis metro area, with FanDuel listing Scheffler at +240, according to CBS Sports. He arrives after finishing fourth at the British Open and is chasing his second victory of the year.
The event is one of three left before the PGA Tour playoffs start on Aug. 13. The field is lighter than last week’s Open Championship lineup, but it still includes defending 3M Open winner Kurt Kitayama and Maverick McNealy, who sit as co-second choices at +2500.
SportsLine model fades McNealy
SportsLine said its golf model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, ran the 3M Open 10,000 times. The outlet said the model has correctly projected 17 golf majors entering the weekend, including the 2026 Masters, its fifth straight Masters call, plus last year’s PGA Championship and Open Championship.
One of the model’s headline calls is a chilly one for McNealy. SportsLine projects that he will fail to finish in the top five despite being one of the shortest-priced players in the market.
CBS Sports pointed to McNealy’s recent form: a missed cut at The Open, a 55th-place finish in his previous tournament and a 32nd-place finish before that. He also missed the cut at last year’s 3M Open.
The statistical case against him, according to CBS Sports, centers on ball striking and accuracy. McNealy ranks 113th in strokes gained: approach the green and 122nd in driving accuracy percentage, numbers the outlet said make his +2500 price look steep for this course.
Keefer gets the longshot spotlight
SportsLine’s model is more upbeat on Johnny Keefer, who is priced at +6500 by FanDuel. Keefer, 25, finished third at the Scottish Open two weeks ago, his third top-10 result of the season, according to CBS Sports.
The case for Keefer starts with tee-to-green strength. CBS Sports reported that he ranks second on tour in greens in regulation percentage and is also inside the top 10 in both driving distance and strokes gained: off-the-tee.
TPC Twin Cities is presented by CBS Sports as a fit for those tools because the course places weight on iron play rather than putting. The outlet also noted that the course’s large greens can help players who are weaker with the putter, a category it placed Keefer in.
Top of the FanDuel board
FanDuel’s odds were listed as subject to change. The shortest prices in the 2026 3M Open field, according to CBS Sports, are:
- Scottie Scheffler: +240
- Kurt Kitayama: +2500
- Maverick McNealy: +2500
- Hideki Matsuyama: +3000
- Tom Kim: +3000
- Jackson Koivun: +3300
- Keith Mitchell: +3300
- Pierceson Coody, Corey Conners, Doug Ghim, Jake Knapp and Jordan Smith: +4000
Other notable names on the board include Sungjae Im at +5000, Max Homa at +5500, Gary Woodland at +6000, Brian Harman, Tony Finau and Keefer at +6500, Jason Day at +8000, and Matt Kuchar, Chris Kirk and Lucas Glover at +12500.
SportsLine also said its model is targeting two additional players priced at +6000 or longer to contend at TPC Twin Cities.
This story draws on original reporting from CBS Sports.