Yankees Phillies prediction: SportsLine model backs runs on Sunday night
SportsLine’s 10,000-game simulation picks Over 8 runs as New York visits Philadelphia on Sunday Night Baseball.
By Deshawn Carter · Sports Writer
3 min read
The latest Yankees Phillies prediction from SportsLine is all about offense: after 10,000 simulations of Sunday night’s game, its projection model is on Over 8 total runs.
New York visits Philadelphia at Citizens Bank Park for Sunday Night Baseball, with first pitch set for 7:20 p.m. ET. CBS Sports lists the Phillies as -189 favorites on the money line, with the Yankees at +156. The total is 8 runs, and the run line has Philadelphia -1.5 at +118.
The matchup arrives with the Yankees at 59-45, the second-best record in the American League, according to CBS Sports. The Phillies are 56-49 and on pace for a fifth straight postseason berth.
Form tilts toward New York. The Yankees have won the first two games of the series and three in a row overall, while Philadelphia has lost four straight. CBS Sports also notes New York is 7-2 across the past nine meetings between the clubs.
What is the Yankees vs. Phillies prediction?
SportsLine’s model projects 9.0 combined runs and recommends Over 8. The model’s call is based on its 10,000-game simulation, plus recent scoring and pitching trends cited by CBS Sports.
The Over has hit in five of the past eight games between the Yankees and Phillies, according to CBS Sports. The total has also gone Over in 11 of Will Warren’s 19 starts, a 58% rate.
Warren, listed by CBS Sports at 7-4 with a 4.00 ERA, is scheduled to start for New York. CBS Sports points to tougher splits for him away from the Bronx and under the lights: a 5.40 ERA in night games compared with 2.57 in day games, and a .276 batting average allowed on the road compared with .249 at home.
Philadelphia is set to hand the ball to Cristopher Sanchez, listed at 12-4 with a 2.71 ERA. CBS Sports describes Sanchez as a Cy Young favorite, but also reports a rougher recent stretch: a 5.86 ERA and 18 earned runs allowed over his past five starts.
That is a sharp turn from his first 16 starts, when CBS Sports says Sanchez had a 1.80 ERA and allowed 21 earned runs. CBS Sports also notes Sanchez started the All-Star Game and took the loss after giving up three earned runs in one inning.
What are the Yankees vs. Phillies odds?
- Money line: Phillies -189, Yankees +156
- Total: 8 runs
- Run line: Phillies -1.5 (+118)
- First pitch: 7:20 p.m. ET
- Venue: Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia
SportsLine says its projection model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. CBS Sports reports the model entered the 2026 MLB All-Star break on a 33-21 run on top-rated MLB picks and returned nearly 30 units of profit on home run prop picks in 2025.
The model has also made a money-line pick for Yankees vs. Phillies, but CBS Sports directs readers to SportsLine for that selection.
This story draws on original reporting from CBS Sports.