October CPI forecast points to slower price growth as gasoline fell
Economists expected October consumer prices to rise 0.3%, with lower gasoline prices offering relief ahead of Tuesday’s CPI release.
By Frankie Delgado · News Reporter
2 min read
The October CPI inflation forecast pointed to a slower monthly increase in consumer prices after gasoline costs eased, though the official report had not yet been released. The Labor Department was scheduled to publish the Consumer Price Index at 8:30 a.m. ET Tuesday.
Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expected headline CPI to rise 0.3% in October from the prior month, according to NBC News. That would be a slower pace than September, when consumer prices increased 0.6% from August.
The forecast would still mean prices rose during the month. It was not a prediction of broad price cuts.
What did economists expect from the October CPI report?
Bloomberg’s survey put expected core inflation at 0.2% for October. Core CPI leaves out food and energy, two categories that can move sharply from month to month, so falling prices at the pump would directly weigh on the overall CPI measure but not on core inflation.
Citigroup economists expected airfares to stabilize or decline and said higher energy costs might have only limited effects on goods prices. They also projected possible moderation in shelter and service-price inflation. Those were forecasts, not reported October outcomes.
The previous CPI report showed prices were 3.7% higher in September than a year earlier, NBC News reported. No comparable year-over-year figure was expected for the pending October report because a government shutdown interrupted data gathering and the October 2025 CPI report was skipped.
Why were gasoline prices in focus?
AAA’s national average for regular gasoline fell from $4.41 a gallon on Oct. 1 to $4.18 by the end of the month, according to NBC News. That decline of more than 5% gave headline inflation a potential brake after fuel costs had helped lift prices in September.
Gas prices continued down in early November, reaching $4 a gallon on the Monday before NBC News published its report. That later move does not change October’s CPI reading, but it could affect inflation measures in future months.
The direction of fuel prices remains uncertain. Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG, told NBC News that replenishing oil inventories after countries released crude and related products could put support under prices once the Middle East conflict recedes.
For the October report, the clearest question was whether the lower cost of gasoline would be matched by slower increases in the rest of the consumer basket. The Tuesday release was expected to provide that answer.
This story draws on original reporting from NBC News.