U.S. murders keep falling, but a handful of cities buck the trend
A Council on Criminal Justice analysis found homicides down across most surveyed cities in early 2026, despite increases in places including San Francisco and Dallas.
By Deshawn Carter · Sports Writer
4 min read
America’s homicide drop kept rolling through the first six months of 2026, according to a new Council on Criminal Justice analysis, even as several cities posted increases from last year’s already-low totals.
The Washington, D.C.-based nonprofit found that 21 of the 30 cities with homicide data saw the average murder rate fall 18% from January through June compared with the same stretch in 2025. The finding extends a sharp national decline that followed what CBS News reported was the largest single year-over-year drop on record in 2025, with final FBI figures still pending.
CCJ president and CEO Adam Gelb said the slide is appearing in cities with varied politics, economic conditions, policing tactics, prosecution approaches, violence prevention programs and federal enforcement levels.
Gelb said local programs still matter, but he pointed to broader forces as possible contributors, including technology keeping more people at home and a decline in alcohol abuse.
Most crime categories fell
The CCJ study reviewed 13 types of crime across 36 cities. Nine categories fell in the first half of 2026 compared with the first half of 2025, according to the analysis.
Carjackings showed the steepest decline. Drug offenses rose the most, though the report said they remained below 2019, pre-pandemic levels.
Aggravated assaults were roughly flat, down 2% from the first half of 2025 and 3% from the first half of 2019, according to the study.
The report did not name one single reason for the continued homicide decline. Researchers cited a mix of possible factors behind the trend.
Some cities moved the other way
A CBS News review of the figures found eight cities where homicides rose compared with the first half of 2025. Four of those cities had double-digit increases.
San Francisco’s homicide rate rose 55% compared with the same period last year, according to the CCJ study. The San Francisco Police Department gave CBS News different figures: spokesperson Evan Sernoffsky said the city had recorded 16 homicides so far this year, compared with 13 during the same period in 2025.
Sernoffsky said San Francisco recognizes that homicides have increased slightly from last year and that police will keep such cases as a top priority. Last year, the city ended 2025 with its lowest homicide rate in more than 70 years, according to the department.
The CCJ report notes that its analysis relies on data obtained soon after the period studied, which can differ from official police numbers published later. The study converted offense counts into monthly crime rates per 100,000 residents.
Jeff Asher, co-founder of AH Datalytics, told CBS News that San Francisco’s increase comes after the city had its fewest murders since 1941.
Dallas also showed a double-digit increase in the study, with CCJ reporting a 30% rise in the homicide rate. A Dallas Police Department spokesperson told CBS News the department’s official data does not show a 30% increase for the same reporting period.
The study also found double-digit increases in Salt Lake City and Norfolk, Virginia. Norfolk’s homicide rate was up 64% in the first half of 2026 and 36% above the first half of 2019, according to CCJ.
Norfolk Police Chief Mark Talbot said earlier that the city’s 2025 murder rate was its lowest in 40 years, crediting strategic staffing and technology. Norfolk police did not respond to CBS News about the latest numbers.
Austin, Texas, was up 9% from last year and 74% from 2019 in the study. An Austin police spokesperson told CBS News the department has not seen a significant increase. CCJ reported smaller increases in Denver, Chicago and Charlotte.
Big drops in other cities
Several cities saw steep declines. Little Rock, Arkansas, recorded a 61% drop in homicides in the first half of 2026 compared with last year, while Rochester, New York, fell 76%, according to the study.
Lincoln, Nebraska, went from six murders in 2025 to zero so far in 2026. A Lincoln Police Department spokesperson told CBS News the department is encouraged by the 100% drop and hopes the trend continues.
Across the cities studied, CCJ also found that the share of serious violent crimes that were fatal fell 23% from the first half of 2025.
This story draws on original reporting from CBS News.