A worker shortage could flip the AI jobs panic on its head
Demographer Steven Ruggles says boomer retirements and smaller youth cohorts could shrink the U.S. labor force in the 2030s.
By Sal Moretti · Money Reporter
3 min read
America’s next labor headache may be too few workers, not too many machines.
Steven Ruggles, a University of Minnesota professor of history and population studies, told CBS News that the United States is heading toward a severe worker shortage over the next 10 to 15 years as baby boomers retire and smaller groups of young people enter the job market.
Ruggles, who created the Integrated Public Use Microdata Series, or IPUMS, said demand for younger workers is likely to surge in that period. He described the shift as an unprecedented moment in U.S. economic history, with more people leaving the labor force than joining it.
His analysis, based on U.S. Census Bureau data and Congressional Budget Office population projections, estimates that the labor force will shrink by 2.7 million workers, or 1.3%, from 2030 to 2040.
That would follow a sluggish decade for labor force growth. From 2020 to 2030, Ruggles projects a net increase of 9.1 million workers, the smallest number of new net entrants since the 1960s.
Boomers are moving out of the workforce
The demographic squeeze is already visible. Census data cited by CBS News shows that an average of 10,000 baby boomers a day turn 65 from 2011 through 2029.
In 2025, that pace reaches a record 4.18 million Americans turning 65, or more than 11,400 people per day, according to the same Census data.
Ruggles told CBS News that “baby boomers are quickly leaving the scene” while the supply of young people is limited. He also pushed back on the idea that artificial intelligence will dominate the jobs story by wiping out work.
“Some people think AI is going to take away all jobs,” Ruggles said. “But there are going to be very few people who are searching for jobs, relative to the size of the economy.”
Young workers could gain leverage
A tighter labor market could make life better for workers who are entering it, according to Ruggles. With fewer people competing for jobs, he said, young workers could see stronger wage growth and improved working conditions.
Ruggles told CBS News the shift is likely to bring “rising wages for young people, stronger unions, and lower inequality.” He said those entering the labor force could find unusually strong economic opportunities.
Artificial intelligence may still play a major role, but as a support system rather than a job killer, in Ruggles’ view. He said AI could help offset the effects of demographic change by raising productivity without necessarily damaging workers’ prospects.
If companies produce more with AI, Ruggles said, they may have more money available to pay the smaller group of young workers they employ.
Trades and care jobs may feel the squeeze
Ruggles said shortages are likely to vary by industry. CBS News noted that while AI can handle many administrative tasks and work such as text generation, image creation and computer coding, human labor remains central in areas including health care, construction and education.
Career experts cited by CBS News said trades such as electricians, plumbers, welders, masons and HVAC technicians are becoming more attractive to young people as AI reshapes office work.
Ruggles said jobs that are less likely to be mechanized over the next few decades, including plumbing and electrical work, could be in especially high demand and become costly to hire for.
This story draws on original reporting from CBS News.