ESPN analyst eyes Doug Ghim as 3M Open birdie chase begins

The 3M Open is set up for a scoring sprint at TPC Twin Cities, and ESPN betting analyst Pamela Maldonado is looking for players who can turn all those green-light chances into birdies.

Maldonado wrote that the Minnesota course is listed at 7,451 yards, though it can play nearer to 7,200 yards because players are able to cut corners and carry hazards. She noted that the greens are large, water comes into play on 12 of the 18 holes and the winning score often lands close to 20 under when weather does not interfere.

Her read on the tournament is straightforward: avoid the penalty areas, fire at pins and keep the birdies coming. While past course results suggest accuracy can work at TPC Twin Cities, Maldonado also pointed out that several past contenders and winners have relied on serious distance.

All odds cited by Maldonado were from DraftKings Sportsbook, listed with ties and subject to change.

Ghim gets the nod in Group C

Maldonado’s Group C pick is Doug Ghim at +315, against Corey Conners, Ben James, Max Homa and Sungjae Im.

Her case starts with the birdie numbers. According to Maldonado, Ghim ranks 19th in birdies despite sitting 124th in putting, a split she reads as evidence that his ballstriking is creating plenty of chances even without a hot putter.

She also cited Ghim’s broader profile: 10th from tee to green and 11th in greens in regulation. Maldonado wrote that if putting were neutral across four rounds, she would make Ghim the favorite in the group because of his all-around game.

Conners, she wrote, owns the stronger long-term résumé, but she said Ghim looks like the cleaner fit over a recent 32-round sample.

Kohles backed to top Group F

In Group F, Maldonado picked Ben Kohles at +325 over Casey Jarvis, Jason Day, Beau Hossler and Max Greyserman.

Her argument leans heavily on iron play. Maldonado wrote that Kohles is fourth on approach, sixth from tee to green and first in greens in regulation, traits she views as a strong match for TPC Twin Cities.

She also flagged his recent results. After two consecutive missed cuts in May, Kohles has recorded five straight top-30 finishes, according to Maldonado, including a third-place tie at the John Deere Classic and a Korn Ferry Tour victory.

Maldonado added one warning: with only average putting, she does not see him as the best group-winner pick, though she said he could still threaten for a top-10 tournament finish.

DFS spotlight lands on Jackson Suber

For daily fantasy, Maldonado highlighted Jackson Suber at $8,900.

She wrote that Suber ranks in the top 15 in fantasy points gained and birdie-or-better percentage, with improved iron play in recent starts. His season-long profile is dragged down by early missed cuts, she said, but his form since May has looked much different.

Maldonado cited six top-30 finishes in his past eight starts, including three top-10s. She also pointed to a fourth-place finish at RBC Canada followed by a T28 at the U.S. Open.

Knapp and Mitchell make the fade list

Maldonado recommended fading Jake Knapp at $9,400, citing three missed cuts in his past four starts and a T74 before that stretch. She also referenced reports of a lingering wrist or thumb issue, noting that he wore a custom brace at the U.S. Open.

Keith Mitchell, priced at $9,500, was another fade for Maldonado. She acknowledged his strong 32-round profile, including 10th in birdie-or-better percentage and fourth in strokes gained off the tee, but pointed to two missed cuts in his past six starts and a T51 as signs of volatility.

Maldonado wrote that Mitchell could still contend, but said a placement wager may fit better than using him in DFS at that price.

This story draws on original reporting from ESPN.com.