Indiana’s title defense opens with a 10.5-win betting test
CBS Sports says Curt Cignetti’s Hoosiers face big expectations after a surprise national title and a roster reload led by transfer Josh Hoover.
By Georgia Hale · Staff Writer
3 min read
Indiana football is entering the season with a number that would have sounded wild in Bloomington not long ago: 10.5 regular-season wins.
After winning the national championship under coach Curt Cignetti, the Hoosiers are priced among the top contenders again, according to odds cited by CBS Sports betting writer Matt Severance. Indiana is listed at +800 at DraftKings to win the title, alongside Oregon at +800 and behind Ohio State (+600), Notre Dame (+650) and Texas (+670).
Indiana opens Sept. 5 at home against North Texas, with CBS Sports listing the Hoosiers as a 39.5-point favorite. The schedule begins with three non-conference home games against North Texas, Howard and Western Kentucky.
The bar is high because last season was no ordinary breakout. Severance reported that Indiana was a +10000 preseason longshot before winning the national title, making the championship one of the more unlikely runs in recent Big Ten history. He also noted that nine of the previous 10 national champions before Indiana had opened at +800 or shorter.
Indiana began that title season ranked No. 20 in the preseason AP poll, which CBS Sports said was the second-lowest starting poll position for an eventual champion since Auburn opened No. 22 in 2010.
Cignetti’s Over streak meets a tougher number
The Hoosiers’ 10.5-win total has the Under as a slight favorite, according to CBS Sports. Indiana is also listed at over/under 7.5 Big Ten wins.
Cignetti’s recent betting record is part of the intrigue. CBS Sports reported that teams coached by him at the FBS level have exceeded their regular-season win totals in all four seasons: Indiana in 2025 and 2024, plus James Madison in 2023 and 2022.
At Indiana, Cignetti has 27 wins across his first two seasons, the most by any FBS coach in his first two years at a school, according to CBS Sports. The Hoosiers also became the second team in the past 30 years to lead the FBS in points-per-game differential in consecutive seasons, joining Georgia’s 2021 and 2022 teams.
The repeat bid has a history problem, too. CBS Sports noted that Michigan State, in 1965 and 1966, was the last Big Ten program to win back-to-back football national championships.
New quarterback, same big swing
Indiana returns 10 starters, according to CBS Sports, but the biggest vacancy is at quarterback. Fernando Mendoza, last season’s Heisman Trophy winner, left as the No. 1 overall pick in the NFL Draft.
Cignetti turned to the transfer portal, adding former TCU quarterback Josh Hoover. CBS Sports cited 247 Sports in reporting that Hoover was ranked No. 9 overall in this year’s portal class.
Hoover enters the season as college football’s top returning passer with 9,629 yards and ranks second among returning players with 71 touchdown passes, according to CBS Sports. DraftKings lists him at +1500 to win the Heisman, per the report.
Indiana also added former Michigan State receiver Nick Marsh, who had 59 catches for 662 yards and six touchdowns last season, according to CBS Sports. The roster has 44 newcomers, including 18 transfers: nine on defense, six on offense and three specialists.
The Big Ten road will have teeth. Indiana avoids Oregon and Penn State, but hosts Ohio State and visits Michigan. Severance also pointed to road games at Nebraska and Washington as difficult spots.
Severance wrote that he leans Under 10.5 wins, projecting losses to Ohio State and Michigan at a minimum. He also said Indiana could still return to the playoff at 9-3, with CBS Sports listing the Hoosiers at -350 to make the playoff and +480 to finish with exactly nine regular-season wins.
This story draws on original reporting from CBS Sports.