Magomed Ankalaev title shot chances pegged high before Abu Dhabi return
ESPN projects Ankalaev has an 88% chance to fight for UFC gold again as he headlines Saturday’s UFC Fight Night in Abu Dhabi.
By Georgia Hale · Staff Writer
3 min read
Magomed Ankalaev title shot talk is back on the table before he returns Saturday in Abu Dhabi, with ESPN projecting an 88% chance that the former UFC light heavyweight champion gets another crack at gold.
Ankalaev, listed by ESPN at 21-2-1, meets Bogdan Guskov in the light heavyweight main event of UFC Fight Night at Etihad Arena. ESPN’s fight listing has Guskov at 18-3-1, with the card set for Saturday, July 25, on Paramount+.
The bout is Ankalaev’s first since he lost the undisputed light heavyweight title to Alex Pereira in a rematch at UFC 320 last October, according to ESPN. His title reign, as listed in ESPN’s projection, ran from March 2025 to October 2025.
Will Magomed Ankalaev get another title shot?
ESPN gives Ankalaev the best visible number in its former-champion projection, putting his chance of another title fight at 88%. A title-shot projection is an estimate of how likely a fighter is to be booked into a championship bout again, based on division position, recent results and UFC matchmaking realities.
ESPN’s Brett Okamoto wrote that Ankalaev has powerful arguments both for and against another title opportunity. The case for him starts with his résumé at light heavyweight, while the case against him includes what ESPN described as the UFC’s doubts about his marketability.
Okamoto noted that Ankalaev needed 10 UFC wins over four years before receiving his first title opportunity. ESPN also pointed to the manner of his most recent defeat, a first-round knockout loss to Pereira, as part of the picture surrounding his path back.
Saturday’s fight is framed by ESPN as a significant one for Ankalaev because it comes immediately after losing the belt. A win over Guskov would put him back in motion in a division where he recently held the championship.
Former champions are crowding the UFC headliners
Ankalaev is the third former champion to appear in the UFC’s past two main events, according to ESPN. Last weekend in Oklahoma City, former middleweight champion Dricus du Plessis beat former welterweight champion Kamaru Usman by unanimous decision across five rounds.
ESPN published its projection after that run of former titleholders in headline slots, ranking eight ex-champions by their chances of returning to a championship fight. Ankalaev’s 88% figure is the only full projection shown for him in the available report.
The Abu Dhabi card also includes Steve Erceg vs. Ramazan Temirov at flyweight, Ismail Dulatov vs. Wellington Turman at welterweight, and Santiago Ponzinibbio vs. Sam Patterson at welterweight, according to ESPN’s fight listings.
For Ankalaev, the stakes are clean: he is coming off the end of a short title reign, facing Guskov in a main event, and already carrying ESPN’s highest-profile comeback question into fight week.
This story draws on original reporting from ESPN.com.