MLB home run picks: Nolan Arenado tops SportsLine's July 23 props
SportsLine’s Adam Thompson has Nolan Arenado and Spencer Torkelson among his home run prop plays for Thursday’s five-game MLB slate.
By Georgia Hale · Staff Writer
3 min read
SportsLine’s latest MLB home run picks for Thursday, July 23 put Nolan Arenado and Spencer Torkelson in the spotlight on a short five-game schedule, according to a CBS Sports betting report by Chinmay Vaidya.
The final game on Thursday’s MLB card is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET, CBS Sports reported, giving bettors a tighter window than usual to get any home run props in before first pitch across the slate.
SportsLine expert Adam Thompson listed two best home run prop plays for the day: Arenado of the Diamondbacks at +780 on DraftKings and Tigers first baseman Spencer Torkelson at +505 on DraftKings, according to the report.
A home run prop is a player-specific bet on whether that player will hit a home run in a given game. Odds such as +780 or +505 show the payout relative to a $100 stake if the bet wins.
Who are the MLB home run picks for July 23?
- Nolan Arenado, Diamondbacks, +780 at DraftKings, according to SportsLine.
- Spencer Torkelson, Tigers, +505 at DraftKings, according to SportsLine.
SportsLine said Thompson’s picks come with the Diamondbacks facing the Cardinals and the Royals meeting the Tigers, two matchups on a Thursday card that includes teams involved in wild-card races.
Thompson, according to CBS Sports, was an early SportsLine expert from 2016 to 2019 and returned in 2026 after serving as the main betting analyst for Gambling.com Group. CBS Sports described him as an analytics-focused handicapper who works across the NFL, MLB and NBA, with additional results in college basketball, horse racing and golf.
The report said Thompson is up more than 70 units in MLB over the past two seasons and more than 60 units in the NBA over the same span at sports betting apps.
Why did Adam Thompson pick Nolan Arenado?
For Arenado, Thompson’s angle starts with the opposing pitcher. Cardinals right-hander Michael McGreevy has a 1.93 mark across three June starts, according to SportsLine, but the report noted that two of the four runs he allowed in that stretch came on home runs.
SportsLine also pointed to McGreevy’s recent long-ball issue, saying he has given up six home runs and seven walks across his past seven games.
Arenado’s own form is the other half of the case. SportsLine reported that the Diamondbacks third baseman has four home runs over the past two weeks while batting .316 with a 1.146 OPS.
The report said Tim Tawa is the only other Arizona regular with more than two homers in that same span. SportsLine also noted Arenado’s recent history with St. Louis, saying he had a pair of 30-homer seasons with the Cardinals not long ago.
Why is Spencer Torkelson on the list?
Torkelson’s recent line is strange in a very useful way for home run bettors, according to SportsLine. The Tigers first baseman has only five hits over the past week while batting .192, but three of those hits were home runs.
Over the past two weeks, SportsLine reported, five of Torkelson’s 10 hits have gone for home runs.
The matchup also factors in. SportsLine said Comerica Park in Detroit plays more favorably for right-handed power hitters than for left-handed hitters. Torkelson bats right-handed.
Royals starter Randy Dobnak has allowed three runs in 14 innings this season, according to the report, with two of those coming on home runs. SportsLine also said Kansas City’s bullpen has the third-highest home run rate since the start of July.
This story draws on original reporting from CBS Sports.