MLB home run picks July 24: Kyle Tucker, Salvador Perez top card
SportsLine's Matt Severance put Dodgers outfielder Kyle Tucker and Royals catcher Salvador Perez on his Friday home run prop card.
By Georgia Hale · Staff Writer
3 min read
The MLB home run picks July 24 from CBS Sports betting analyst Matt Severance start with two familiar names: Dodgers outfielder Kyle Tucker and Royals catcher Salvador Perez.
Severance listed Tucker at +670 on FanDuel and Perez at +650 on DraftKings among his preferred home run prop plays for Friday’s baseball slate. He also wrote that any home run recommendation from him is a stronger signal that he likes the player’s over 1.5 total bases.
Who are the MLB home run picks for July 24?
- Kyle Tucker, Dodgers, +670 at FanDuel, according to Severance
- Salvador Perez, Royals, +650 at DraftKings, according to Severance
A home run prop is a wager on whether a specific player will hit a home run in a given game. Odds such as +670 or +650 show the listed payout price at the sportsbook cited by the analyst.
Severance said this was not one of his favorite Friday boards because the schedule does not include games in Cincinnati, Denver or Sacramento, parks he described as friendly to hitters. He also wrote that the weather did not look especially helpful for homers, though he did not expect postponements.
Why Kyle Tucker is on the card
Tucker’s Dodgers face the Mets at Citi Field with a 7:10 p.m. ET first pitch. Severance noted that both teams were off Thursday, which he said should reduce lineup uncertainty.
The case for Tucker, according to Severance, is built around his history against Mets left-hander Sean Manaea. Severance cited Tucker’s career mark of 8-for-22 against Manaea with a double, four home runs and a 1.346 OPS.
The current form is much colder. Severance wrote that Tucker is batting .236 with seven homers, has two hits in his last 25 at-bats and has not homered since June 27.
Manaea enters the matchup at 2-5 with a 4.74 ERA, according to Severance, and has allowed 12 home runs in 81 innings. Severance also noted that Manaea has given up exactly two homers in each of his last three starts.
Severance mentioned Mookie Betts and Tommy Edman as other Dodgers with strong career results against Manaea. He cited Betts’ 1.044 OPS in 36 at-bats against him, including three homers, and Edman’s 4-for-5 line with two homers and a double.
Why Salvador Perez is on the card
Perez and the Royals visit the Tigers at Comerica Park for a 6:40 p.m. ET first pitch. Severance framed the matchup as Perez against Detroit left-hander Tarik Skubal, whom he described as a possible trade candidate ahead of the deadline.
Skubal is 6-5 with a 2.83 ERA, according to Severance. After a few uneven outings following elbow surgery, Severance wrote that Skubal has allowed four earned runs across his past four starts, covering 23 innings, with two home runs allowed in that span.
Perez has 14 homers this season, according to Severance, and has gone deep three times in his past six games. Severance wrote that Perez’s 317th career homer on Wednesday tied George Brett’s Royals franchise record.
The matchup history is the hook. Severance cited Perez’s career numbers against Skubal as four homers, two doubles and a .282 average in 39 at-bats. He wrote that Perez’s four homers off Skubal are tied with Paul Goldschmidt for the most by any hitter against the Tigers starter.
This story draws on original reporting from CBS Sports.