Royals Tigers picks lean on Troy Melton as Detroit faces deadline call
CBS Sports likes Detroit and Troy Melton against Kansas City, with a +148 same-game parlay built around the Tigers and unders.
By Deshawn Carter · Sports Writer
3 min read
The Royals Tigers picks market is circling Troy Melton on Thursday, with CBS Sports analyst Matt Severance backing Detroit as a heavy home favorite while the Tigers weigh whether to buy or sell before the Aug. 3 trade deadline.
Detroit hosts Kansas City at 6:40 p.m. ET in the final game of a light five-game MLB slate. CBS Sports listed the Tigers at -229 on the money line, Kansas City at +192 and the total at 8.5 runs.
The recommended same-game parlay from Severance is Detroit money line, under 1.5 runs in the first inning and an alternate full-game under 10.5 runs. CBS Sports listed the FanDuel price at +148.
What are the Royals vs. Tigers picks?
Severance’s pick is built on Detroit winning behind Melton and the game staying controlled on the scoreboard. The SportsLine model cited by CBS Sports projects a 5.2-4.0 Tigers win and gives Melton a line of 5.6 innings, 4.3 strikeouts, 5.1 hits allowed and 2.7 earned runs.
Melton, 25, has become a late-July pressure point for Detroit. CBS Sports reported that he enters the start 5-1 with a 1.80 ERA and 0.87 WHIP across nine starts after missing the first two months of the season with elbow inflammation.
His July has been sharper still: 1-0 with a 0.52 ERA in three starts, according to CBS Sports. In his previous outing, he became the fifth pitcher in Tigers history at age 25 or younger to post back-to-back nine-strikeout games, joining Tarik Skubal, Rick Porcello, Jeremy Bonderman and Justin Thompson.
Melton’s cutter is a big part of the jump. CBS Sports reported that he is throwing it 20.5% of the time this season, with opponents batting .083 against it and missing on 26.0% of swings. In 2025, he used the pitch 10.8% of the time, with a .368 opponent batting average and a 12.8% whiff rate. Its average velocity has also climbed from 90.9 mph to 92.2 mph.
Why does Melton matter to the Tigers trade deadline?
The Tigers are 48-54, 4.5 games out of the final American League wild-card spot and 6.5 games behind in the AL Central, according to CBS Sports. SportsLine gives Detroit a 24.1% chance to make the postseason, while CBS Sports listed the Tigers at +350 to get in and -450 to miss.
Manager A.J. Hinch said Monday that Detroit has understood the stakes for weeks as rumors swirl around two-time Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal and other Tigers pitchers.
“We’ve been playing Game 7 since May,” Hinch said, according to CBS Sports. “We know what’s ahead. We know what the conversation around our team is.”
Kansas City arrives in a far different spot. CBS Sports described the Royals as deadline sellers and noted that franchise shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. went on the injured list Wednesday for the first time in his career. Witt was batting .279 with 13 home runs, 39 RBIs and an American League-best 30 steals.
The Royals are expected to use a bullpen-style pitching plan led by veteran Randy Dobnak, who has a 1.93 ERA and no decisions in 14 innings this season, according to CBS Sports. Gleyber Torres is the only active Tigers hitter listed as having faced him, going 0-for-2 with two walks.
Severance also pointed to conditions at Comerica Park, with wind blowing in and temperatures not especially hot, as part of the case for the unders.
This story draws on original reporting from CBS Sports.