Tatis and Machado among SportsLine expert’s MLB homer picks
Angelo Magliocca’s July 20 home run prop card also includes Curtis Mead and Esmerlyn Valdez on a 15-game MLB slate.
By Georgia Hale · Staff Writer
3 min read
A 15-game MLB Monday has sent the home run prop board into overdrive, and SportsLine analyst Angelo Magliocca has circled four bats for July 20.
According to CBS Sports betting coverage by James Holliman, Magliocca’s picks are Curtis Mead at +360 on FanDuel, Fernando Tatis Jr. at +450 on BetMGM, Manny Machado at +450 on FanDuel and Esmerlyn Valdez at +310 on BetMGM.
Magliocca, who is also known as “Amags,” is described by SportsLine as an MLB handicapper with a record of 133.4 units won on straight bets and parlays across the 2022, 2023, 2024 and 2025 seasons, plus another 25.3 units on ladder plays.
The four home run picks
- Curtis Mead, +360 at FanDuel
- Fernando Tatis Jr., +450 at BetMGM
- Manny Machado, +450 at FanDuel
- Esmerlyn Valdez, +310 at BetMGM
Mead is the first name on the card, with Magliocca pointing to his matchup against Kyle Freeland in Colorado. In Magliocca’s breakdown, Freeland has given up 16 homers in 65 innings against right-handed hitters this season, while also allowing hard contact to righties at close to a 60% rate.
Magliocca said Mead has done serious damage against left-handed pitching, with seven of his 17 home runs coming in a little more than 100 at-bats against southpaws. He also cited Mead’s .521 slugging percentage in that split, Freeland’s fastball-heavy approach against righties and the combination of Colorado altitude and 100-degree weather.
Padres power gets the nod
Tatis and Machado both land on Magliocca’s list for San Diego’s game in Atlanta. CBS Sports reported that Tatis had homered in back-to-back games entering Monday, and Magliocca said his place near or at the top of the order could give him multiple chances.
The matchup is against Bryce Elder, and Magliocca flagged Elder’s recent home run trouble. According to the SportsLine analysis, Elder allowed three homers in his previous start and seven across 26 innings in June. Magliocca also noted that right-handed batters are hitting nearly .300 against him, with six of his 15 homers allowed coming to righties in 34 innings.
Machado’s case, according to Magliocca, leans on his season-long success against right-handed pitching. CBS Sports reported that 15 of Machado’s 19 home runs this year have come against righties, and that he hit three homers in 11 July games before the break.
Valdez rounds out the card
Valdez is the final pick at +310. Magliocca cited his 12 home runs in 105 MLB at-bats this season and said half of those homers have come against left-handed pitchers.
SportsLine’s write-up also credited Valdez with an OPS above 1.500 and a slugging percentage above 1.000 against lefties, while noting those rates are unlikely to stay that high. Since returning from the All-Star break, CBS Sports reported, Valdez has 10 total bases in three games, including two home runs.
Magliocca also pointed to the matchup with Ryan Weathers, hot weather, a hitter-friendly ballpark and the possibility that the Yankees’ bullpen could be short after heavy use Sunday, including closer David Bednar.
This story draws on original reporting from CBS Sports.