Yankees favored as SportsLine model eyes a low-scoring Pirates opener
New York is a -188 favorite for Game 1 of Wednesday’s doubleheader, while SportsLine’s model projects the total just under 9.5 runs.
By Georgia Hale · Staff Writer
2 min read
Rain turned Yankees-Pirates into a Wednesday double bill, and the betting board is already leaning Bronx for the afternoon opener.
New York, listed at 56-44, hosts Pittsburgh, listed at 52-49, at 1:05 p.m. ET at Yankee Stadium in the first game of a day-night doubleheader, according to CBS Sports. Tuesday’s matchup was postponed by rain after the Yankees took Monday’s series opener, 8-5.
The Yankees enter the day second in the AL East, while the Pirates are fourth in the NL Central and tied for the final Wild Card spot, CBS Sports reported.
The matchup
Former Pirates right-hander Gerrit Cole is scheduled to start for New York in Game 1. CBS Sports lists Cole at 3-5 with a 3.93 ERA.
Pittsburgh is set to counter with Mitch Keller, who is listed at 6-7 with a 5.14 ERA.
The latest betting lines cited by CBS Sports have the Yankees as -188 favorites on the money line, meaning a bettor would risk $188 to win $100. Pittsburgh is listed at +156.
- Money line: Yankees -188, Pirates +156
- Total: 9.5 runs
- Run line: Yankees -1.5 at +108
- Streaming option listed: Fubo
What the model says
SportsLine’s projection model, which CBS Sports says runs each MLB game 10,000 times, is backing the under on 9.5 total runs for the first game.
The model projects 9.3 combined runs, according to CBS Sports, putting its call narrowly below the posted total.
CBS Sports said the model entered Week 18 of the MLB season on a 35-21 run on its top-rated MLB picks. The outlet also said the model finished 2025 with nearly 30 units of profit on home run prop picks.
Why the under is in play
CBS Sports pointed to several trends behind the model’s total pick. Because Tuesday’s game was washed out, Wednesday afternoon’s matchup is now the second game of the series, and Pittsburgh’s last five Game 2s of a series have finished under the total, according to the report.
Cole’s history against the current Pirates lineup is another piece of the case. CBS Sports reported that Pittsburgh hitters on the roster have combined to bat .185 against him, going 15-for-81.
The Yankees’ games with Cole on the mound have also leaned lower-scoring this season, according to CBS Sports, with the under going 8-2 in his starts.
Keller’s split by start time adds one more wrinkle. CBS Sports reported that Keller has a 3.60 ERA in day games, compared with a 6.58 ERA at night.
SportsLine’s model also identified value on one side of the money line, CBS Sports reported, though that pick was not published in the free portion of the report.
This story draws on original reporting from CBS Sports.