California Proposition 40 puts a one-time billionaire tax to voters
California’s proposed one-time 5% tax on billionaires is polling ahead but below 50%, exposing a sharp Democratic divide.
By Georgia Hale · Staff Writer
3 min read
California Proposition 40 billionaire tax supporters and opponents are heading into a costly final stretch before voters decide whether to approve a one-time 5% tax on the state’s billionaires.
About $100 million had already been spent or reserved for advertising through Election Day, according to AdImpact figures cited by NBC News. The proposal, pushed by SEIU-United Healthcare Workers West, has drawn opposition from Silicon Valley leaders including Google co-founder Sergey Brin, NBC News reported.
What would California Proposition 40 do?
Proposition 40 would impose a one-time 5% tax on California billionaires, according to NBC News. The available reporting does not specify how the measure would define billionaires or how any proceeds would be used.
The vote has also put a public split among top Democrats on the ballot. Former Health Secretary Xavier Becerra and Gov. Gavin Newsom oppose the measure, while activist Tom Steyer and Rep. Ro Khanna support it, NBC News reported.
Former Vice President Kamala Harris, former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, and Sens. Adam Schiff and Alex Padilla had not taken firm public positions as of NBC News’ Sept. 30 report.
Where does Proposition 40 stand in the polls?
An NBCUniversal Local/Telemundo Station Group survey found 48% of likely California voters backed the proposal, while 38% opposed it and 14% were undecided. That gives supporters an edge in the survey, but leaves the measure short of majority support.
Among Democratic respondents, 67% said they would vote yes and 19% said they would vote no. The survey also tested a central argument from opponents: that wealthy Californians could leave the state. Fifty-nine percent said they were not concerned about that possibility, while 41% said they were concerned.
The ballot battle is separate from California’s race for governor, though it involves some of the same party figures. Becerra, the Democratic candidate, and Republican Steve Hilton were scheduled to meet in their only planned debate before the Nov. 3 general election, according to the Associated Press. A September UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll found Becerra held a sizable lead, the AP reported.
Why are Democrats watching the California tax vote?
The national stakes are political, not a forecast of how voters elsewhere will act. NBC News described the outcome as a potential marker in the Democratic Party’s debate over populist economic policy before the 2028 presidential campaign.
Its report noted that raising taxes on billionaires was the most popular of 15 candidate attributes tested in a national NBC News poll of registered voters. Khanna was also set to appear with Sen. Bernie Sanders at San Francisco and Los Angeles rallies backing the wealth-tax proposal.
For now, California’s contest remains a state ballot measure with a divided Democratic establishment, well-funded opponents and a poll lead that has yet to clear 50%.
This story draws on original reporting from NBC News.