Pete Crow-Armstrong’s new eye has Cubs star chasing Ohtani
The Cubs center fielder has cut his chase rate, lifted his walk rate and turned a plate-discipline fix into an MVP-caliber season.
By Deshawn Carter · Sports Writer
3 min read
Pete Crow-Armstrong’s big leap has come from a small, stubborn baseball skill: leaving bad pitches alone.
The Chicago Cubs center fielder entered the All-Star break as one of MLB’s top all-around players, and CBS Sports’ Matt Snyder reports that the change traces back to a weakness Crow-Armstrong identified last season. In a conversation in Cincinnati, Crow-Armstrong said he was waiting for the day he better understood the strike zone and stopped swinging at so many poor pitches.
That day appears to have arrived. According to CBS Sports, Crow-Armstrong’s walk rate has climbed from 4.5% last season to 11.2% this year. His chase rate, which tracks swings at pitches outside the strike zone, has dropped by more than six percentage points.
The 24-year-old is also swinging less overall, making more contact when he does offer and hitting the ball harder. CBS Sports reported his hard-hit rate is up seven percentage points.
Crow-Armstrong told CBS Sports he is pleased with the progress, saying he has had useful conversations with people about finding ways to get on base more often. He also noted that his on-base percentage is higher than it has been at any previous stop in his career.
A breakout built on patience
The numbers behind the shift are sharp. Before this season, Crow-Armstrong had two career games with multiple walks. Through his first 96 games this year, CBS Sports reported he had nine such games, including the first two three-walk games of his career.
He has also become harder to finish off. Before this season, he had walked four times in his career after falling behind 0-2. This year, he has already done it seven times.
Crow-Armstrong pointed to a May 24 game against the Houston Astros as the moment his approach began to click, according to CBS Sports. The box score showed an 0-for-1 day, but he drew three walks. At that point, he was batting .228 with a .316 on-base percentage and .370 slugging percentage.
By the All-Star break, his line had jumped to .291/.386/.531, good for a 155 OPS+, according to CBS Sports. Among National League players, he ranked 13th in batting average, fifth in on-base percentage, ninth in slugging and fifth in OPS.
Since that May 24 game, CBS Sports reported he has posted a 1.170 OPS with 30 walks and 15 home runs over 44 games. Before it, he had a .682 OPS, 17 walks and six homers across 52 games.
Ohtani’s closest NL MVP pursuer
Crow-Armstrong’s glove and speed were already major parts of his game. CBS Sports described him as one of baseball’s best defenders and a dangerous baserunner. Last season, he became the first Cubs player since Sammy Sosa to post a 30-homer, 30-steal season.
Now the bat has pushed him into rarer territory. CBS Sports reported he is second in the majors in WAR behind Shohei Ohtani. Caesars listed him with the second-best National League MVP odds entering the second half, behind Ohtani, at +650.
His current pace, per CBS Sports, points toward 25 doubles, six triples, 36 home runs, 91 RBIs, 108 runs and 41 steals. If he reaches another 30-30 season before turning 25, he would join Julio Rodríguez and Bobby Witt Jr. as the only players with multiple such seasons before that age, according to CBS Sports.
There is also a Cubs history angle. CBS Sports reported Crow-Armstrong had 5.9 WAR at the break, putting him on pace for about 9.8. The only Cubs position-player seasons at 10 WAR or better belong to Rogers Hornsby in 1929, Sosa in 2001 and Ernie Banks in 1959.
CBS Sports noted one caution: Crow-Armstrong also had a strong first half last season before fading later. This time, the improved discipline gives him a sturdier foundation as the Cubs begin the second half.
This story draws on original reporting from CBS Sports.